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This is the best possible Mets rotation for Opening Day 2024
The New York Mets currently have three major holes in their starting rotation entering this offseason following the departures of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander and the regression of David Peterson and others. The task to reform the rotation is steep, though not as deep as last year, as Max Scherzer was the only holdover from the projected rotation without injuries. This year, they have Kodai Senga and José Quintana in place for 2024.
However, with the Mets still probably a year away from their top pitching prospects being truly ready for the majors, like Mike Vasil and Blade Tidwell, the Mets will need to look outside the organization to assemble a competitive rotation for next year. And there are plenty of opportunities for the Mets to retool for next year. So here is the best possible rotation, given that the Mets might not spend like drunken sailors they did the last two winters.
No. 1 starter for the best possible New York Mets rotation in 2024: LHP Julio Urías
When Julio Urías was called up to make his MLB debut in 2016, he was just 19 years old, and was one of the youngest starting pitchers ever to debut in the big leagues. And his career has been an up and down one with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He started out with control issues, innings limits, and even a domestic violence situation during his first four years. However, Urias turned it around by pitching tough and clutch innings for the Dodgers in their World Series run in 2020, won 20 games in 2021, and led the NL with a 2.16 ERA and 188 ERA+ last season.
But this season has been one of inconsistency and injury for Urías, as he has had trouble putting away hitters, and missed six weeks due to a hamstring issue. His ERA is 4.69, more than twice the number from last season, while opponents are hitting .251 against him, over 50 points higher than his mark from last season.
And because of these unfortunate happenings in his walk year, Urías' price may come down a bit, and it may be one the Mets can afford, given that they won't shell out $40 million a year, or even $30 million a year to a starting pitcher to help the Mets.
Urías, even in his struggles, doesn't walk many batters, still induces soft contact better than most, and has shown quality more often than not. Urias would be a perfect top-of-the-rotation guy for the Mets going forward, should the Mets sign him this offseason.
No. 2 starter for the best possible New York Mets rotation in 2024: RHP Kodai Senga
Kodai Senga being the ace of the New York Mets represents everything right and wrong with how this season was in Flushing. First the good, he was an All-Star this season, and deservedly so, as he has been one of the top 10 starting pitchers in the National League this season, with a high strikeout rate and a low ERA. Senga will appear on some ballots for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year voting at the end of the season. He also proved the Mets can dip into the international market to find immediate help.
The Mets are trying it again this season as they have reportedly scouted Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Japan, who is a few years younger than Senga and has been the best pitcher in his league over the past three seasons.
The bad is that he was not supposed to be their No. 1 starter right now as Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were both supposed to be ahead of him on the depth chart. Both are now gone, as Scherzer was dealt to the Texas Rangers, and Verlander was shipped back to the Astros. Senga is one of the biggest reasons to watch Mets baseball for the rest of the season, even though their path to the playoffs is cut off by the firesale.
No. 3 starter for the best possible New York Mets rotation in 2024: RHP Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola has been a familiar foe for the Mets his entire career, perhaps because he has spent all of it with the Philadelphia Phillies, and he's been, at times, one of the best starters in baseball. He has gotten votes for the Cy Young Award in the National League in three of the past six seasons, including a third place finish in 2018.
Nola was reportedly offered a contract worth more than $100 million last winter, but he rejected it. And he might have lost some money because of it. Why? He has taken a bit of a step back this year, as his home run and walk rates have nearly doubled, though he is still walking just a tad over two batters over nine innings. But his career has been a bit like Max Scherzer's in a way, because his ERA correlates well with him keeping the ball in the ballpark.
He'd also go from a notorious hitters' park in Philadelphia to a pitcher-friendly park in Queens if he signs up with his division rival for a few years. And like with Urías, the Mets could capitalize on a smaller price tag since his value has gone down a bit, and can go deep into games. He threw over 200 innings in three of the last four non-pandemic seasons, and is on pace to do it again this year. He'd be a really good value get for the Mets this offseason.
No. 4 starter for the best possible New York Mets rotation in 2024: LHP José Quintana
The Mets have lost each of the three games José Quintana has pitched in so far because of poor bullpen performances and little run support. However, Quintana has demonstrated why the Mets brought him in during free agency in the first place in each start, because he is consistent and gives the Mets a chance to win, as he has gone at least five innings and given up no more than three runs in all of the starts.
Imagine how different the trajectory of the season would have been if Quintana broke camp healthy. There is every chance the Mets would still be a contender as they'd be closer in the Wild Card hunt and they'd go for it with a healthy rotation. He would have carried over the success from 2022, when he overperformed for the St. Louis Cardinals following a midseason trade and helped push the Cardinals to a division crown, and he would have looked like the steal of the offseason.
The Colombian southpaw will enter next season at 35 years old on the last year of a two-year, $26 million contract he signed last offseason, and the hope will be he doesn't deal with injuries that kept him out of the equation in the first half. He clearly has a lot left in him, so he can easily turn in 160 innings or more next season if healthy.
No. 5 starter for the best possible New York Mets rotation in 2024: LHP Hyun Jin Ryu
Hyun Jin Ryu finally returned to the Toronto Blue Jays mound for the first time since he underwent Tommy John surgery nearly 14 months ago, and he was shaky at times, giving up four earned runs in five innings on Tuesday, but he got better as his first start got going, with his command improving the deeper he went. There will be more time for him to bounce back between now and the end of the season as he is looking to help the Blue Jays get back to the playoffs.
His value is lower because of the Tommy John recovery and his overall underperformance of his contract with the Blue Jays, which was a 4-year, $80 million deal he signed before the 2020 season, which may want him to get a change of scenery out of Toronto, where his ERA was more than a run higher in Toronto than it was with the Dodgers.
However, Ryu, who would be 37 on Opening Day next year, would fit in nicely with the Mets on a 1-2 year deal as an innings-eating fifth starter, and has only walked two batters per nine innings on average his entire career. And like Quintana, and Urias, would be a lefty in the rotation to counter all the lefty power hitters in the division.
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