The 3 best Mets prospects who should begin in AAA and 1 prediction for each of them
These prospects will draw our attention to Syracuse in 2024.
The New York Mets will have many evaluators arriving in Port St. Lucie, Florida, when pitchers and catchers report on February 14th. The front office will be evaluating all aspects of the team to find the best 26-man roster for opening day in March. The scouts will travel back and forth from the major and minor league complexes, grading the Mets' new prospect additions from the draft and international signing period. Some in the media will rush to Pete Alonso's locker asking about his contract status, while others will start pestering Carlos Mendoza and David Stearns with questions from the press conference podium.
One of the questions Stearns must answer is the estimated arrival of the Mets' top prospects. With the Mets' commitment to rebuilding for the future, all eyes will be on the minor league players to start spring training. In particular, the AAA roster will be the most closely monitored since they are the closest to major league ready. In 2023, the organization's best minor league affiliate was the AA Binghamton Rumble Ponies with most of the Mets' top prospects finishing the season on their roster. Many of those players have already proven enough in Binghamton and are ready to take the drive up I-81 to AAA Syracuse. In particular, who are the 3 best prospects set to make their AAA debuts and when can we expect them on the Mets?
1. Drew Gilbert will debut by May 1st.
If the 2023 Mets season could be summed up in one sentence, it would be "The year Steve Cohen bought a farm system". Not only did Cohen buy free agents last offseason, but he pivoted to buy top prospects at the trade deadline who are close to major league ready. The headlining trade acquisition was outfielder Drew Gilbert, dealt from the Houston Astros along with Ryan Clifford for Justin Verlander. Best known as the 'bat-flip king' from his collegiate career at the University of Tennessee, Gilbert was selected 28th overall in the 2022 draft.
Gilbert has very little left to prove at the minor league level. Before changing organizations, Gilbert hit .361 with 6 home runs and 18 RBI for the Astros' High-A Asheville affiliate. Though he struggled upon his promotion to AA Corpus Christi, he seemed to have flipped a switch once traded to AA Binghamton. From there, Gilbert hit .325 with 6 home runs and 21 RBI. He demonstrated great plate discipline drawing 19 walks in 35 games as well as earning accolades for his efforts in centerfield.
Stearns has recently committed to Gilbert starting the season at AAA Syracuse while also leaving the door open to an early season call-up. The Mets have a solid mix of outfielders on paper, though only Brandon Nimmo has proven to stay healthy and perform in the past few seasons. Starling Marte is coming off the worst season of his career at age 35, while Harrison Bader was limited to 98 games between the New York Yankees and Cincinnati Reds. D.J. Stewart and Tyrone Taylor are also above Gilbert on the depth chart, though neither has proven to be an everyday player. Should Gilbert impress enough in spring training, he will be an option if Bader and Marte falter in April.
2. Luisangel Acuna will not debut until late summer 2024.
So far, the deal for Clifford and Gilbert is evaluated as incomplete since neither has been promoted and Verlander helped the Astros with the American League West. The other trade of significance seems to be lopsided in the Mets' favor as Max Scherzer will miss the first half of 2024 rehabbing from herniated disk surgery. In return from the Texas Rangers, the Mets received infielder Luisangel Acuna, the 22-year-old younger brother of Ronald Acuna Jr. Signed for just $425K out of Venezuela in 2018, Acuna is ranked as the organization 3rd best prospect on the MLB Pipeline.
Acuna showed advanced contact and base-stealing ability between the two organizations last season. In 569 plate appearances, he struck out just 106 times and stole 57 bases. These statistics were enhanced by his .294 batting average and .359 on-base percentage. In the field, Acuna's speed has given him an above-average range that makes up for his average arm strength. Having played multiple positions in the infield and outfield, scouts believe Acuna's best path to the majors will be at second base.
Acuna still has much to prove offensively before being promoted to the major league club. While his name recognition and speed have garnered a lot of attention, evaluators have been drawn back by his lack of power and ground ball rate. Similar to Ronny Mauricio and Amed Rosario, Acuna often chases pitches out of the strike zone. The difference between the three infielders is that Acuna does make contact, but the results have been weak ground balls pulled to the left side. This has led to Acuna's prospect stock falling since being acquired in July. For the 22-year-old to earn his place on the depth chart, he must show better line-drive ability and pitch selection.
3. Christian Scott will make his debut by Memorial Day.
Except for 2000 and 2006, every great Mets team has won games on the backs of homegrown starting pitching. This mindset seems to be coming back with the emergence of a few young pitchers coming through the pipeline. The most impressive of the bunch in 2023 was right-hander Christian Scott, who was selected in the 5th round of the 2021 draft. Originally drafted as a relief pitcher at the University of Florida, Scott's fastball and slider mix have earned him enough credibility to be considered a top 101 prospect in baseball according to PECOTA.
After struggling in a swing role at Single-A St. Lucie in 2022, Scott was entrusted with a permanent starting position at High-A Brooklyn to start in 2023. He posted a 2.28 ERA in 23.2 innings pitched for Brooklyn, earning him a promotion to AA Binghamton. From there, Scott pitched to a 2.47 ERA in 62 innings with 77 strikeouts and just 8 walks. His immense pitch control coupled with the spin rate and velocity uptick on both his fastball and slider have earned Scott name recognition throughout the industry.
The Mets' starting pitching staff has lots of names with very few guarantees. Aside from Kodai Senga, it's hard to make the argument the team's rotation and 40-man roster depth are strong enough to sustain a 162-game schedule. Furthermore, the offseason additions of Adrian Houser, Scott Madea, and Luis Severino can all become free agents and have not proven to make 30 starts in the past few seasons. Add in the fact Senga is used to pitching every 6th day, the Mets will rely on prospects from AAA to contribute in a significant way. Scouts have predicted Scott to be the first Mets pitching prospect to make his debut in 2024. Should the rotation falter behind Senga, expect Scott to be promoted earlier rather than later.