6 Mets players who won’t survive the trade deadline

The New York Mets have just come off one of the worst months in their history as a team. After a disastrous month of June, the team looks complicated in its sights to reach the position in the postseason this year.

The Mets could be a rare combination this summer, being sellers of those rental-type players as they seek to add depth to their farm system. Additionally, they could be buyers of some controllable players in the interest of staying competitive this year and still competing in 2024. Regardless of the move, these players will certainly not be with the Mets past the trade deadline date.

Mets outfielder, Tommy Pham, will be an eye-catching trade target for several teams

Since late May, Tommy Pham has been one of the most consistent Mets hitters. Pham has been successful this season by hitting the ball harder, decreasing his strikeout propensity, and increasing his walks.

Pham ranks in the top 10% in hard-hit contact and the top 5% in expected batting quality as measured by the xwOBA. Likewise, he has reduced his propensity to hit ground balls, which has guaranteed a positive result.

Tommy Pham is an attractive target for teams in need of an outfield player with power and contact. Teams would not have to pay even a minimum portion of the one-year, $6 million contract he signed with the Mets earlier in the season, a move by the front office that seeks to maximize the return on his rental players.

Teams like the Texas Rangers, Cleveland Guardians, and the Miami Marlins would be among those interested in Pham's services. While the return would not be very high, the Mets could get at least one top-20 prospect from those teams by complementing with a non-top-30 prospect.

The market could turn interesting for Mets closer David Robertson

On dates close to the trade deadline, demand for relievers grows exorbitantly in MLB. The need for efficient bullpen arms is key for teams competing for a postseason berth and beyond.

David Robertson emerges for the second year in a row as a flashy piece for contending teams looking for a solution in their bullpen. Throughout 2023 Robertson has done a great job filling in for Edwin Diaz in the back end of the Mets bullpen.

Robertson has been efficient this year on the mound, posting a similar level of strikeout percentage as he did in 2022 but at the same time dropping his number of walks by more than five percentage points. These results are due to an improvement in his cutter, achieving a higher spin rate and leaving the opposition hitting under .150.

Teams like the Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers, and Texas Rangers need multiple bullpen options. In the case of the Rangers, in addition to having acquired Aroldis Chapman, they still need arms to complement the starting pitching.

Looking at the return the Kansas City Royals got on Aroldis Chapman in the trade he sent to the Texas Rangers, the Mets would not get much for Robertson. However, as we get closer to the deadline, the teams are becoming more desperate, which would help the Mets get at least one trade for a top prospect within the top 20 or two above the top 25.

Despite a bad year, the Mets could trade Carlos Carrasco

The history of Carlos Carrasco and the Mets has not been a good one. Since he arrived in the trade that brought Francisco Lindor to Queens, Carrasco has suffered a series of health problems and inconsistency on the mound that has not been what the Mets expected of him.

Despite this, the Mets starter's 2022 season wasn't bad. Carrasco managed to get an ERA below 4.00 thanks to the effectiveness of his changeup that kept opponents hitting 0.43.

This year things have not gone well for the veteran pitcher, with his fastball and changeup being punished due to problems with the location of these pitches. As a result, Carrasco is having his worst year in terms of strikeouts and walks of his career.

Multiple teams need starting pitchers and some are looking for more than one candidate to fill various spots in their pitching rotations. Arizona Diamondbacks, Tampa Bay Rays, and Baltimore Orioles would be three organizations that could turn their interest toward a pitcher like Carrasco as a starter option back end on their teams.

Although the Mets would be assuming the entire salary of Carlos Carrasco, the return of this pitcher would not be very high unless he can show flashes of improvement as in some previous outings. The Mets can count on a return of some top 25-30 prospects as the best-case scenario in a trade for Carrasco.

Mets outfielder market, Mark Canha can move fast

Mark Canha came to the Mets in the 2022 season offseason on a 2-year, $20 million contract that expires after this season. However, Canha has a club option worth around $12 million with a $2 million buyout.

Canha has been a productive outfielder in his career. He is a contact hitter with excellent plate discipline and striking ability for teams looking for players with this profile.

Canha is having a similar season to 2022. He has increased his walk percentage and hard-hit contact, while his strikeout percentage continues to decline.

A relevant aspect of Canha's perseverance as a hitter is his approach to straight pitches. Canha is hitting the fastball generally above .300, with an SLG above .500, and is generating a reduction in his swing and miss.

Canha's market will be interesting since many teams will want the services of an outfielder with his hitting profile at the plate and at the cost that a player like him entails. Canha's return may be high for a player of his ability, but it will depend on whether the Mets decide to cover in addition to the 2023 salary, the buyout, or part of the 2024 salary.

Teams like the New York Yankees, the Houston Astros, and the Cleveland Guardians would be the first to offer the services of this outfielder. A prospect ranked in the top 18-20 range could be the return generated by Canha, which could include another prospect outside the top 30, depending on how much the Mets cover.

Mets designated hitter, Daniel Vogelbach continues to be a valuable trade target

Mets fans have suffered greatly from Daniel Vogelbach's performance this season. The Mets' designated hitter has not shown the consistency of power the team expected.

However, Vogelbach has been showing an improvement in his power. During June he hit three home runs in a span of nine games, indicating an improvement in the launch angle of his swing.

Advanced metrics show that Vogelbach has been having trouble getting the ball up. His hard-hit contact is at a career-high, hovering around 50%, while his chase rate and BB% remain league elites in the top 5% of MLB.

However, his launch angle has dropped, which has increased his ground ball hits by more than 14 points. As this angle of hitting the ball rises, Vogelbach will generate more offensive production.

Regardless of this, his profile and contract, from which he earns just $1.5 million this season, with control for one more year, may draw the attention of some teams. The Cleveland Guardians may be a perfect fit for Vogelbach, as well as the Miami Marlins.

Vogelbach's return could be around a prospect near No. 30 in the ranking of interested teams. Vogelbach may be one of the fastest-traded Mets team figures this summer.