5 reasons why the Mets can be sneaky good in 2024

The New York Mets might very well be the most underrated team in Major League Baseball headed into the 2024 season. The team made as much roster turnover in a single offseason as we've seen in team history, but not in the most obvious ways.

After a season where the Mets grossly underachieved on a record payroll, there are plenty of reasons to think the Mets are primed to bounce back in 2024. Preseason PECOTA projections have the Mets making the playoffs with around 84 wins, and they could be looking at some of the same factors as we are, in how the Mets can be a solid team.

1) Edwin Diaz, baseball's best closer, is back.

Mets fans knew the entire outlook on the 2023 season altered significantly the moment Edwin Diaz hurt his knee in the World Baseball Classic. Diaz had just signed the first $100 million contract for a reliever in baseball history, and for good reason, as he is the best closer in the game coming off a season for the ages. I, for one, dearly missed his entrance to the sounds of Timmy Trumpet.

Two years ago, Diaz masked so many deficiencies in the Mets bullpen, a problem that Billy Eppler didn't address enough in New York (or during his GM stint with the Los Angeles Angels). The Mets went 89-0 when leading after eight innings in 2022 thanks to Diaz. Last year, that mark was 64-2. It was still very good, but you didn't feel like the game was over when David Robertson was called on to make saves. Robertson turned out great in those (he netted the Mets two of their team's top 30 prospects in Marco Vargas and Ronald Hernandez in a trade last summer).

So many games were lost in 2023 because the bullpen was a weak point with this team. Without Diaz, the Mets' reliever ERA jumped from 3.55 in 2022 to 4.48 in 2023. Additionally, from 2022 to 2023, walks per nine innings jumped from 3.1 to 4.0, strikeouts per nine dipped from 10.4 to 9.2, and WHIP increased from 1.218 to 1.336.

Having Diaz back in the bullpen changes everything for the Mets. It allows the team to shorten games, put pressure on other teams to score before Diaz comes into save situations, and it lets the other relievers pitch in situations they were supposed to pitch at in the first place.

2) The talent and depth of the middle relievers significantly improved.

As mentioned in the previous slide, David Robertson gave much better than expected results for the Mets in 2023. Also, Brooks Raley and Adam Ottavino were a generally solid duo of back-end relievers last season, and it's huge that Ottavino came back for another season with the Mets.

But where the Mets bullpen fell off was with their middle relievers. With the Edwin Diaz injury, there were plenty of circumstances where pitchers were thrusted into high-leverage situations just to give their quality relievers rest. You saw relievers not show confidence with command, they didn't throw strikes when they had to, and it was alarming. Also, Mets pitchers threw zero 100 mph pitches last year, and were one of three teams not to have one, though they will get plenty of that this season.

But David Stearns seemed determined to make a patchwork fix for 2024. He brought in guys who could light up the speedometer. The three newcomers projected to make the team out the bullpen all have average fastball velocities over 95 mph. They are lefty Jake Diekman, and righties Shintaro Fujinami and Jorge Lopez. Do they all have control issues? Yes, but if the Mets can help alleviate those concerns, this will be a tremendous bullpen in 2024.

3) The health outlook for Starling Marte is better now than it was at this point last season.

A big reason the Mets offense in 2022 felt so different from prior years was because they had a different type of player that teams had to game plan around, in Starling Marte. You factor his aggressive hitting and his threat as a baserunner as things opposing managers had to consider. Also consider you had a leadoff hitter that was excellent at getting on bases ahead of him, and you had two MVP candidates to protect him in the lineup. It was all there for Marte to be a force and turn the Mets into a lineup the team hadn't seen before.

However, Marte's injury issues have been well-documented, and how his finger injury in September of 2022 was a reason the Mets failed to fend off the surging Atlanta Braves in the National League East that year, and eventually, be one-and-done in the Wild Card Series against the San Diego Padres. The Mets offense looked totally worse without him there and healthy.

Marte was not healthy or right last year, either, still. Marte followed up the best season of his career by OPS+ (132 in 2022) with his worst (73 in 2023), and he only played four games after the All-Star break and spent two stints on the injured list, one for a migraine issue and one for a groin strain that ended his season in early August.

Marte was seen flying around the field in the Dominican Republic this winter, looking like the player he was two years ago. Marte will enter spring training in the best shape he's been in for 18 months, and getting any sort of replication of his 2022 self will be enormous.

4) The Mets outfield defense should be substantially improved.

Last season, the Mets ranked tied for sixth worst defensive runs saved above average in the outfield with a mark of -16. That was simply not going to cut it for the Mets, a team that had plenty of issues regarding run prevention, an issue that David Stearns wanted to fix immediately.

Last season, 10 of the 12 teams that made the playoffs had a positive DRS above average in the outfield, including all six division winners. With the way the rules changed last year, the athletic teams tended to be rewarded with more activity involved. The Mets did not have a healthy Starling Marte, and Brandon Nimmo regressed defensively from 2022. Their best defensive outfielder, Mark Canha, was traded at the deadline as part of the selloff last summer, and their speedster Tim Locastro, was hurt for most of the year. All those factors turned the outfield defense into a nightmare.

This year, it will change in a big way. The Mets brought in Gold Glove winner Harrison Bader to play center field. Tyrone Taylor, who plays above average defense, will be the team's fourth outfielder, and could be one of the best the Mets have had in a while defensively. Brandon Nimmo moves from center field to left field, as Bader should take pressure off of him, and Starling Marte will enter spring training healthy. And if Drew Gilbert finds a path to the majors, he will help as well.

It also helps that all of the Mets outfielders have strong arms.