5 Mets players who will be the biggest X-factors in determining where this team goes

We know the players who need to carry the New York Mets to the finish line. What about those others who look strong enough to put the load on their shoulders?

Several Mets players could be considered an X-factor for this ball club. Leaders like Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, etc. don’t really qualify because they’re the ones doing the brunt of the work or at least they should be. Someone like Jeff McNeil hitting well is helpful, but not the sort of difference-maker the team needs to become a true contender for a championship.

It’s these five, in a very particular order, who’ll be the biggest X-factors to determine how far the Mets can go.

5) Francisco Alvarez

The importance of Francisco Alvarez cannot be overstated. As both a hitter and defensive player, we’ve seen how different the Mets look with him in the lineup. Pitchers like Jose Quintana are confident with him behind the plate and successful. He makes a difference just by being present on the field.

He becomes an X-factor for a couple of reasons. Good health is the most important. Already having missed a good percentage of the year while playing a position that gets battered on a nightly basis, ensuring he’s around for the last legs of the season is crucial to the Mets making a run.

By just being a good defensive catcher and game-caller we can reap the rewards of Alvarez. He adds to the X-factorness by continuing to hit well and doing it with power and average. The offensive explosion by the Mets in June will need to continue for this team to be anything more than playoff hopefuls. Someone like Alvarez slotting in as a number five or six hitter and being a real threat each time at the plate helps deepen a Mets lineup that could end up as their biggest strength.

Remove Alvarez from the equation and the drop off is major at the position. The Mets can live without his bat. As we’ve seen, the pitchers will have a tough time breathing without him behind the plate.

4) Mark Vientos

This is where Mark Vientos becomes important. If Vientos wasn’t doing so well, the Mets would have time to add at third base. They’re certainly not going to turn to Brett Baty again so quickly. He had his chance. A strong showing by Vientos is important in many of the same ways as Alvarez.

The lengthening of the Mets lineup is the first place where Vientos’ impact can be seen. Whether hitting fifth, sixth, or seventh, they benefit greatly from not having an automatic out from the third base position.

Vientos hasn’t been a butcher at third base either. Those questions about his defense can be brushed aside. His bat is far too valuable to sweat over his reputation as a defensive liability. Not everyone can win a Gold Glove. And as we’ve discovered this year, even those known for their defense can become a problem.

Vientos saves the Mets from having to go out and get another third baseman. It’s a position where you want some production offensively from and the kid has offered up plenty of it thus far. Growing into more than a guy who hits the ball and occasionally launches it far has made the Mets a more legitimate team. The Mets don’t have half a lineup thanks to the performance by Vientos whose continued success will allow the Mets to focus on improvements to the pitching staff and not the offense.

3) Luis Severino

There are a couple of pitchers worth considering for this spot. Ones who didn’t make the cut include Christian Scott, Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, and maybe anyone else we’ve seen regularly this year. 

Scott will have his innings limited in some capacity. Manaea and Quintana shouldn’t be expected to do much more than they already have. In the “everyone else” category, they’re either still on the list or just not as essential in the realm of X-factor.

Luis Severino is different. As a trade candidate (please, no!) and the best pitcher they’ve had in the rotation this season, his performance down the stretch will help determine what the Mets can or cannot accomplish. He has the greatest upside of any of the starting pitchers we’ve seen so far. Not limited in any capacity, pitching like an ace will give the Mets rotation a needed boost.

Severino isn’t having the greatest season and has pitched to contact a little too much to be considered a true ace. Nevertheless, his ability to go deeper into games than the other Mets starters on top of his experience helps turn him into one of the most important players on the roster.

In a trade, we’d have to expect the Mets to get the most back for him. But let’s stay away from that bridge. Trading Severino doesn’t make enough sense for a team legitimately trying to compete unless they get a sneakily good return back for him. I’m not holding my breath that this comes to fruition.

1) Edwin Diaz

No players may determine the fate of the Mets more than Edwin Diaz. Silly, isn’t it? A guy who’ll pitch one inning on average and only appear at the end in games they’ve already taken the lead in has become this essential to the team’s success. That’s how it is. Without Diaz performing well, the Mets are done for.

When Diaz struggled earlier this year, the Mets had no answers when it came to replacing him. Reed Garrett weakened. Adam Ottavino crumbled. Anyone the Mets tried in the ninth inning during his absence looked like they were amazed that a baseball was round.

Diaz was a missing piece from the 2023 team. His season-long injury elevated everyone in the bullpen. As well as David Robertson pitched as the closer, the Mets are a different team with him and Ottavino strictly used as setup men.

Diaz’s success won’t necessarily translate into the Mets winning. However, his failures will practically guarantee they sell at the trade deadline or make no real attempt to get better.

We’re counting on Diaz being great in the next few weeks. The bullpen has become nauseating. Let’s hope his greatness had nothing to do with sticky stuff and everything to do with increased confidence. When he was at his worst this season, Francisco Alvarez wasn’t behind the plate. Maybe one X-factor helps another.