5 best-case scenarios Mets fans should hope for

It may be hard to feel really good about the New York Mets right now. They haven’t blown us away with any offseason move. Not a single one has been worthy of an in-person press conference. They aren’t looking to win on the back pages with offseason moves, though. David Stearns is crafting together a plan for long-term success even if it’s at the risk of coming up well short of the ultimate goal in 2024.

What the Mets have successfully done is at least given the organization a shot at some best-case scenarios. They didn’t trade Pete Alonso, Edwin Diaz, or any other valuable piece making a lot of money. They aren’t punting away the season. They’re trying to build a team good enough where if enough goes right, they can compete.

These five best-case scenarios are what the Mets will need to swing their way in order to have the most successful 2024.

5) Best-case scenario: All of the young Mets players take a step or leap forward

The Mets are going to depend on young players even more in 2024. They hesitated at the start of last season. It’s easy to forget Francisco Alvarez wasn’t even on the Opening Day roster.

There is little concern about what Alvarez can offer them. But like all of the other kids, he does need to take a step or a full leap forward in his progress.

More so than Alvarez establishing himself as more than a power-hitting catcher who can call a good game, the Mets will rely on Brett Baty to show any signs of life. They can accept him not growing into an excellent defender at third base. Not showing up at the plate is where the worst-case scenario comes into play. 

The Mets have no suitable answers at third base if Baty comes up short. Mark Vientos is regarded as an even worse defender. Joey Wendle on a regular basis won’t cut it either.

It’s those returning Baby Mets plus any others who may make their way to the majors that the team will depend on heavily. Even if they never hit above sixth in the lineup, that last third of the batting order needs to be more than a near automatic out.

4) Best-case scenario: Jeremy Hefner masterfully fixes the bullpen

The Mets bullpen isn’t looking like one of the best ever assembled. Edwin Diaz’s return brings some excitement, but it’s mostly a bunch of out of options relievers who’ve had little, if any, MLB success.

Pitching Coach Jeremy Hefner will have the task of working his magic on many of them. Can he find what made Jorge Lopez an All-Star in 2022? Can he get the most out of any of the other pitchers vying for a major league roster spot? Fixing Drew Smith wouldn’t be so bad either.

The bullpen is what should scare fans the most. We can imagine a scenario where the offense is perfectly fine. Members of the starting pitching staff have done well in the past and for more than just a year. The most imaginative people would have a tough time seeing the Mets relievers owning anything more than a league average ERA. It’s the part of the roster that can quickly sink the team even when so much else goes right for them.

It doesn’t all fall on Hefner. Carlos Mendoza needs to make the right calls. A little help from David Stearns with improvements would be nice as well. Many of the tools he has handed over to the coaching staff are rusted or busted. It might not matter how the rest of the team does if the relievers are blowing the opportunities they get.

3) Best-case scenario: Health isn’t an issue for Harrison Bader, Starling Marte, or Luis Severino

The healthiest teams are often the most successful ones. While the ability of players like Harrison Bader, Starling Marte, and Luis Severino is up for debate, a fully healthy campaign from these guys should benefit the Mets more than hurt them.

An overall healthy year for all of the Mets players is what we’re already wishing for. Those three have the reputation of missing time. Let’s hope none miss a chance to stretch.

A healthy Bader equates to the best defense in center field that we’ve seen in a long time. If we’re lucky, he hits, too.

We already got to see what Marte can do when he isn’t ailing. His 2022 campaign feels like a decade ago already. The importance of him staying on the field and producing is palpable with the club’s starting lineup having plenty of questions in it.

Severino may actually be the most important one to wish good health on. His success can end up as the ultimate decider of how good or bad the starting rotation is. And it’s the starting 5+ where the majority of fans would use up a wish on.

2) Best-case scenario: The starting pitching staff all have career average seasons

The Mets don’t need a Cy Young winner. What they need is for each of their starting pitchers to have an average year. Luis Severino going 14-9 with a 3.79 ERA would be welcomed even if he has managed to put together much better seasons with the New York Yankees in the past. Sean Manaea going 12-11 with a 4.10 ERA would be helpful, too, even if it falls well short of what the Mets starting staff actually needs.

Unlike many members of the bullpen whose career averages aren’t good enough, the Mets starters are better than passable if all they did was meet the mean. A pitcher like Jose Quintana has had such a long career that the range between his best and worst seasons varies so greatly thus so do his overall career numbers. His 3.57 ERA for the Mets last year was actually better than the 3.74 lifetime ERA in 12 MLB seasons.

Five pitchers with ERAs ranging as low as whatever Kodai Senga can do and up to the low 4.00s is going to result in a lot of success for the Mets. Adrian Houser and his 4.29 career ERA as a starter looks fantastic compared to what many other clubs have in their fifth starter spot. Don’t sleep on his 1.76 ERA as a reliever either.