4 likely MLB trade candidates the Mets should target, 3 they should avoid

The offseason is right around the corner, and the New York Mets must be prepared to initiate a series of moves to remain more competitive in 2024 and beyond. In this sense, Bleacher Report carried out an article including each team's most likely trade chip this offseason, of which the Mets must be interested in several options.

The Mets have areas of need that they must address this offseason, where the free agent market may not allow them to be covered all. The Mets would be linked to some of these players this winter, but the team should avoid other well-known players.

Juan Soto could be available this winter, and the Mets should trade for him

The Mets have prioritized rebuilding their farm system to create more sustainability for the future. Despite this, when a generational player such as Juan Soto appears, sacrificing prospect talent is necessary even if this package would be significant.

Soto has been one of the most productive and consistent hitters since he arrived in the big leagues. Even for many, his level of production has dropped since his arrival to the San Diego Padres. In 2023, his line of .275/.401/.519/.930 with a wRC+ of 155 makes him one of the best outfielders in the league.

The Padres outfielder enters the last year of his contract at just 25 years of age, becoming a player with a productive future ahead of him. With a possible exit to free agency and the recently reported financial problems in the Padres organization, it is almost a certainty that the team will explore a trade for its superstar.

The Mets have the prospects and depth to be able to acquire Soto this winter and sign him for the rest of his career. Juan Soto would imply a radical change in the aspirations of the Mets as early as 24 and granting sustainability to the team into the future.

The Mets could acquire a well-known pitcher for David Stearns

The biggest area of ​​need for the Mets is undoubtedly the starting pitching rotation. After the changes of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, the team only has security with the figure of Kodai Senga as its ace and Jose Quintana.

In this regard, it is known that the Milwaukee Brewers have been open to listening to offers for their pitchers, especially former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes. Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in all of MLB for several years; he showed a regression in 2023 caused mainly by an increase in his walks and greater contact allowed, which decreased his strikeout percentage.

Despite this, Burnes' stuff remains elite. His level and performance place him at the top in almost all categories as a pitcher, highlighting his level of inducing reduced power contact with a solid arsenal of pitches.

The Mets can take advantage of several situations that arise in the case of this pitcher. The fact of presenting a regression in its production level in 2023, being in the last year of the contract, and that the organization has David Stearns leading the negotiations, the team could get Burnes for a cost not as high as many of us would think.

Burnes would enter directly into the rotation as the Mets' ace, lightening Senga's responsibility and becoming a one-two man among the best in baseball. Burnes would be the face of a rotation that, with the signing of another good pitcher in free agency, could be the most fearsome in all of MLB.

The Mets can make a low impact with a potential high-reward trade

Former Arizona Diamondback top prospect Jake McCarthy had a great year in 2022 when he hit .283 with 53 runs, 23 stolen bases, and 91 hits in 99 games in MLB with a 117 OPS+. Unfortunately, the outfielder showed a significant decline in his production in 2023, which caused him to get demoted to Triple-A.

Now, the DBacks find themselves with an outfield led by rookie sensation Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas, with other options like Pavin Smith and Dominic Fletcher to cover the rest of the ground. His low production and the depth of Arizona's team could put McCarthy's playing time at risk, making him an expendable piece.

The young DBacks outfielder has speed that places him in the top 1% of the league and average defense in the outfield. While at the plate, McCarthy possesses good contact skills, that combined with his speed, make him a dynamic piece in a lineup.

Looking at the example of the Arizona team this season, teams must have efficient and complementary pieces to be able to make a run at reaching a World Series. Jake McCarthy would be a piece for the Mets that would serve as a rotational outfielder, injecting speed and contact at the bottom of the lineup.

Due to what he showed in 2023, McCarthy's value would be lower, which makes him an intriguing target in the trade market. Especially if we take into account that the outfielder is only 26 years old and is controllable until 2028.

The Mets should look at other options not named Shane Bieber

Shane Bieber is no longer the pitcher who won the Cy Young Award in the 2020 season. After a season where he posted an ERA of 1.63 with a surprising K/9 of 14.20, and a WHIP of 0.87, limiting the opposition to one batting average of just .167, his career has taken another direction heading into the last year of his contract.

His level of dominance via strikeouts has been significantly reduced as the seasons have progressed to an unpromising level of 7.52 K/9. Likewise, hitters have raised their batting average thanks to the fact that they have managed to make more contact and put the ball into play, evidenced by a BABIP almost 30 points higher than in 2020.

The most worrying thing in Bieber's arsenal is the velocity of his fastball. After averaging 94.1 mph on his fastball in 2020, for the 2023 season, it was reaching 91.3 mph, lowering its ability to generate swing and miss from a Whiff% of 25.4 in 2020 to a dismal 9.3 this past season.

Additionally, health problems have been latent, especially this season when he lost playing time due to an elbow injury. This has depressed Bieber's value, but even though he doesn't cost like an ace, his stuff is not even at the level of a number two in a rotation.

The Mets should not be tempted to overpay for a reliever again

One of the worst-performing areas of the 2023 season for the Mets was relief. Losing Edwin Diaz and not having reliable weapons beyond David Robertson doomed many of the team's games.

David Stearns will have to address this area with contracts and trades to improve significantly if they want to be competitive. This could lead the organization to consider changes for high-quality arms such as the trade candidate, David Bednar.

Bednar has undoubtedly been one of the best and most consistent closers in baseball since his arrival to the Pittsburg Pirates 3 years ago. This makes it a highly expensive trade candidate that would involve a couple of an organization's top prospects.

Despite the effectiveness of a pitcher like Bednar, the relief position is the most volatile in baseball. Additionally, the Mets have Edwin Diaz as their flagship in the ninth and as the best high-leverage situation option.

Teams that win and compete consistently do so through a relay of multiple options that are discovered through player development. Overpaying for a reliever would be a mistake for the Mets since it would sacrifice a goal of sustainability for the future. The Mets can find options for their bullpen just as Stearns managed to do with the Milwaukee Brewers in previous years.

The Mets better not try to call up the Boston Red Sox for Alex Verdugo

The Boston Red Sox will have a change of direction this offseason. With a new head of baseball operations, the team will evaluate its options to transform an organization that is coming off years of poor performance.

Alex Verdugo would be a candidate that the Boston team would be willing to trade because he would be a free agent after the 2024 season. Verdugo has been a productive bat who has been in the eye of the hurricane for being unfairly compared to who he "replaced" Mookie Betts.

Verdugo has been a productive hitter with an average of over .280 in MLB, with good plate discipline and great contact ability limiting his swings misses, and strikeouts. Likewise, the Red Sox outfielder is an above-average defender with arm and shooting strength located in the top 5% of the league.

The above shows that the return request for Verdugo's services can be high. The Mets need a reliable and productive outfielder but sacrificing prospects for a rental like Verdugo could be a mistake that would be difficult to accept if he cannot be retained in the long term. The team should focus on other free agent or trade chip candidates instead.