3 way too early Mets assumptions to make after one weekend

One weekend down. More than the number of fingers any of us have left to go. It’s too soon to know exactly who the New York Mets are. For all we know the Milwaukee Brewers are the best or worst team in baseball. Equally so, the same extreme statements could apply to the Mets.

Three games. One opponent. All we can do is make assumptions. And we exit the first series of the year with these three assumptions already.

1) The Mets will be one of the best power hitting teams in baseball this year

The first Mets hit of the season was a home run. They added a bunch more on Saturday. Both they and the Brewers rested from round-trippers on Easter Sunday.

Power was a critique of the Mets lineup heading into last season. Outside of Pete Alonso and less so with Francisco Lindor who proved he does have his home run swing, there wasn’t much to speak of.

Francisco Alvarez would get his promotion early enough in the year to power his way into our hearts and the home run leaders. Notably absent from the power surge was Brett Baty whose time as the starting third baseman included a postponement when he was demoted in August. He does have power and is someone we shouldn’t eliminate from the discussion of hammering over 20 this year.

The arrival of J.D. Martinez will give the Mets a second true slugger. They haven’t had one to pair with Alonso since…maybe Michael Conforto if you want to call him that? Even then, in 2021 when he last played for the Mets, Conforto put together an ineffective and mostly injured campaign.

Home runs have rarely been the key to success for Mets teams in the past. It shouldn’t be what they rely on most this year either. However, a team finishing in the top ten or so in home runs would be a nice treat and change of pace from the station-to-station baseball they’ve relied on a little too much. Players like Jeff McNeil are needed, but hitting cleanup on Opening Day is ridiculous.

Another powerful year out of Brandon Nimmo plus some pop off the bench from Tyrone Taylor should give them some well-rounded power all over.

3) The Mets starting pitching staff is going to be their downfall

Jose Quintana failing to get through five innings on Opening Day, Luis Severino dropping a dud in his debut, and Tylor Megill completing the trifecta on Sunday made for a miserable weekend for Mets starting pitchers. In terms of shocking human events to take place on Easter Sunday throughout history go, the 2024 Mets starting pitching staff performing poorly is hardly the largest jaw-dropper.

The biggest criticism of all for the Mets this offseason by non-fans was the starting rotation. Fans would openly admit it was a concern, but thinking deeply enough into it, we could buy into the projected rotation being at least average. Perhaps that rhetorical purchase made by fans seeking optimism should’ve saved a receipt.

Early exits aren’t uncommon in a player’s first start. Failing to even get 15 outs is cause for concern, though. The five inning benchmark required for a win by a starting pitcher wasn’t present for Quintana or Megill. The former ran into trouble and the latter apparently exited with what could turn into an injury.

Compiling into these fears is the fact that two of these three starters are perceived as top rotation arms for the club. Quintana and Severino limping out of the gate was not the kind of start the Mets needed in the absence of Kodai Senga.

It’s an early assumption to make that the pitchers won’t turn it around. They most certainly can look better the next time around, but those doubts are speaking more loudly today.