The overpriced free agent coming off a great year
Congratulations are in order to Blake Snell for an amazing year that earned him a Cy Young. He had an awesome season at the perfect time. It shouldn’t be enough to convince the Mets he’s the right fit for their rotation.
Those overpriced free agents who dominated right before hitting the open market seem to have a tendency to flounder once paid. Have they really phoned it in because they now own three swimming pools made of pure gold instead of two? Whatever it is, the Mets need to be cautious about overpaying for a guy whose stock is at an all-time high because of one season prior to free agency.
Candidates for this go well beyond just Snell. Was Jorge Soler motivated by the opt out in his contract? He was almost irrelevant for the Miami Marlins in 2022. Last year he was one of the best sluggers in the game.
Unfortunately, a lot of free agency is paying for what a player has done in the past. Specifically, it’s the recent 12 months that tend to reward players. Many are already on the decline by the time they do become available.
There are certainly exceptions. Navigating through which players are about to take off and which are going downhill can be difficult. Apparently, the Mets didn’t foresee Zack Wheeler becoming one of the best pitchers in the game when they let him go.
Just because a guy was really good in 2024 doesn’t mean the Mets should buy into him being excellent again in 2024 and beyond. They need to pay close attention to the overall score of what he has done and more importantly what he will do.