3 reasons why the Mets will beat the Brewers in the playoffs, 2 reasons they don't stand a chance

The Mets are facing a roster that is built to beat them.

New York Mets v Milwaukee Brewers
New York Mets v Milwaukee Brewers / John Fisher/GettyImages
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After one of the wildest finishes you can ever script, the New York Mets play a playoff game today as they begin the best-of-three Wild Card series against the Milwaukee Brewers, who won the National League Central for the second straight season.

The Brewers had beaten the Mets five times out of six in the regular season, with the Mets finally getting a win on their last try this past Sunday. But can things turn the other direction this time? Here

The Mets can win because they have better starting pitching than the Brewers.

The Mets rotation is lined up with Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, and Jose Quintana for each game respectively. All three pitchers have been excellent down the stretch of the season by going deep into games so often. All three also finished with an ERA+ over 100 (league average), which is an accomplishment given all the questions the Mets rotation had in spring training and when the Mets were struggling in the first two months of the season.

At the time of this writing, the Brewers had only announced their Game 1 starter, and that was their ace Freddy Peralta, while the rest of their rotation is still up in the air. The Brewers starters only going short recently has been concerning, as they seem to be reliant on their excellent bullpen to shut down the Mets offense.

So it's safe to say the Mets have the rotation advantage, despite having played lots of baseball over the past four days, and you need good starting pitching in the postseason.

The Mets can't win because the Brewers bullpen is well-rested and in better shape entering this series.

The Mets used virtually all their high leverage relievers in Monday's game and given that Edwin Diaz threw a whopping 66 pitches in the last two days, he might not be available for Game 1. It wil be a patchwork task that Mets skipper Carlos Mendoza must try to finish games.

Meanwhile, for the Brewers, they last used their high leverage relievers on Saturday, so they come in with two days of rest. And their unit as a hole has been exceptional all year. Their bullpen ranked 2nd in ERA and 3rd in WHIP this season, and they've been instrumental in getting the Brewers to where they are. They'll be able to chose from Joel Payamps, Aaron Ashby, Jared Koenig, Trevor Megill, and Devin Williams. Williams missed the first four months of the season due to injury, but has posted a 1.25 ERA in 21.2 innings pitched this season.

The Mets can win because they have so much momentum to carry over into this series.

The Mets have been used to playing intense, edge-of-your-seat baseball games for weeks now just to get into the playoffs, and they emerge from the end of the season as a confident ballclub that had to be the best team in baseball over the past four months just to get into the playoffs. The Mets overcame so much adversity all season long and they have proven to be mentally tougher as the season progressed. As a result, the Mets have nothing to lose and have a track record of success, thanks to the steady leadership of Carlos Mendoza.

Meanwhile, the Brewers ran away with the NL Central and had their seed locked in for a week now, meaning their recent games have been used to determine and construct their roster for the playoffs. The Brewers were not expected to make the playoffs, either, given they lost ace Corbin Burnes and star manager Craig Counsell this offseason. However, nobody thought they would win the division by 10 games. Some potential rust could be an issue there.

The Mets can't win because the Brewers have a well-balanced lineup that is lethal against the New York's weakness.

The Brewers had one of the best combinations of power and speed from an offense in baseball this season. They hit 177 home runs and stole a whopping 217 bases this season, including 17 in six games against the Mets this season. The Brewers' scouting reports saw the Mets weakness in stopping the running game and used them to their advantage, applying pressure on the Mets pitchers to overcome some sloppy defense.

The Mets have to account for some dangerous home run hitters, like Willy Adames, William Contreras, 20-year-old stud Jackson Chourio, and Mets villain Rhys Hoskins, who all hit 20 or home runs this season. Milwaukee also has four players on their active roster that stole 20 or more bases this season. They were Adames, Chourio, Brice Turang (who swiped 50 bags in 2024), and Blake Perkins.

The Mets can win because they have one of the deepest lineups in the game.

The Mets offense has been breathtaking to watch during their trailblazing run to the playoffs. Everything starts with team MVP Francisco Lindor, of course. But the length of this Mets lineup has allowed them to win under so many different situations this season. The Mets can look at the enormous power from Lindor, Pete Alonso, Mark Vientos, and the clutch hitting from Brandon Nimmo and Jose Iglesias as proof the Mets can beat you with their bats in a lot of different ways.

The production the Mets received from the bottom of their lineup this year was why they have been able to generate so many comeback wins and big innings, and the Mets are positioned to believe that any inning could be an explosive one.

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