3 reasons why the Mets should be all-in on Carlos Correa

After a disappointing 77-85 season, the New York Mets enter the offseason looking to rebound and make the playoffs. With the front office search finally complete, attention turns to the players on the field, where several important decisions loom and shape the future of the franchise.

The Mets will operate around $180 million before any heavy lifting. In short, the Mets, attempting to bring back the same team, will be paying the luxury tax. As a result, some fans and pundits will expect to spread the money around to multiple positions, ideally, guys who won't cost them any draft picks as well.

My alternative - spending the money on the best player on the market, current Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa, to give them another elite player in their infield. 

The Mets should be all-in to sign the number one player in free agency this winter: Carlos Correa

Correa enters the offseason as the best player on the market, regardless of position. Just completing his age-27 season, Correa finished with 26 home runs, 102 RBI, and a battling line of .279/.366/.485. Combine that with elite defense at shortstop and you have a player that could become the face of the franchise for whoever he signs with. 

This also isn’t a blip on the radar: Correa hits the market with five seasons of a weighted run created plus tally (wRC+) of 110 or more; with 100 being the mark of an average hitter. Five seasons with a Fangraphs WAR (fWAR) of 3.0 or more with three of the five seasons recording an fWAR of 5.0 or more; a truly elite number. Any way you slice it, this is the elite of the elite and should continue to factor in the hierarchy of baseball whether he remains in Houston or not. 

We’ve seen names attached to the Mets already, and some make sense. Kris Bryant has long been a target of Sandy Alderson and this front office, so the connection makes sense. The same goes for Starling Marte, who offers New York a legitimate two-way centerfielder that also allows Brandon Nimmo to move to a corner position. 

However, as the Mets move into year two of the Steve Cohen era, Cohen should flex his financial muscle and pursuit an infield superstar for the second offseason in a row. 

Mets President Sandy Alderson and new Mets GM billy Eppler have a ton of work to do this offseason

The New York Mets have quite a few needs on the roster, both on the macro and micro. In a basic sense, the Mets could use two starting pitchers, two outfielders, a third baseman, and another relief arm. As a result, the Mets should be talking to just about every big-name free agent this offseason. 

However, not everyone is a fit for the Mets. New York must shop at the top of the market. 

New York could use two “good” starters., maybe even three now that Noah Syndergaard departed for the Anaheim Angels earlier in the week. The starting rotation could use a legitimate top starter, like Colorado’s Jon Gray to offer a bit more consistency behind deGrom. 

The same goes for the outfield. Brandon Nimmo’s fate, whether that be in centerfield or left field gives New York one. After that? Khalil Lee performed well in Triple-A Syracuse (stats) but isn’t ready to hold down a starting job. That means, Marte makes sense if the Mets want to move Nimmo into a corner, but also, who replaces Michael Conforto in right? Avisail Garcia? Nick Castellanos? Tommy Pham? 

Carlos Correa fits in two places: Third base and a big bat. 

Correa is an elite defensive shortstop with the size, hands, and arm to maintain that skill as he moves over to third. We’ve seen players like Hanley Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez move over with no issues at all, I don’t envision many issues for Correa in a potential move. 

The bat is important. New York needs another bat to help Pete Alonso in the middle of the order. Adding Correa and slotting him in third in the order would do wonders for Alonso’s offense, as teams would have to worry about Nimmo (a classic leadoff man), Lindor, and Correa before getting to him. In terms of changing the offense, that would be huge for New York. 

New York’s offseason will have ancillary players added, but if the Mets want to take a considerable step forward, adding big-name players, Correa included, would help them reemerge as a contender in the National League East. 

The conversation about Correa swirls around when discussing the price, but for his impact on the field, he's worth it.

Among the several concerns about Correa to New York is the potential compensation. Not only would Correa break the bank financially (let’s say $30 million per season), but he also comes with a qualifying offer, meaning the Mets would have to give up the 14th pick in the draft. The Mets, as of now, have the 11th and 14th overall selections in the 2022 draft; the 11th pick being compensation for failing to sign Kumar Rocker. 

A couple of things: The first is that the Mets, by letting Michael Conforto walk, will receive another pick, but after the second round. So losing that first-round pick doesn’t completely hamper that draft. 

New York should move that pick. Not just for Correa, but for Corey Seager, Robbie Ray, and other top-level free agents. New York needs a top talent for their roster more than a top 150 prospect who will be three to four seasons away and more likely trade bait before making mastering their trade in Queens. 

The protection over the 14th overall pick also highlights another issue among the Mets: They struggle to develop players. The MLB Draft isn’t just the first round, and that’s where the Mets have truly struggled. After the first three rounds, New York has often faltered in adding players between rounds four through 12, where other teams have succeeded in adding and unlocking players. 

It should also be said that the non-Kris Bryant alternatives don’t make much sense either. Trading for one of Oakland’s Matt Chapman or Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez will likely cost more in compensation; with both players holding multiple years of control. Chapman will likely start with Mauricio, while Cleveland could command Baty in a potential Ramirez swap. 

Speaking of Baty, that seems to be the main concern for fans of Mets prospects. Baty has not only experienced time at first base and left field in the minors, but with the potential arrival of the DH comes more flexibility in the lineup. Who’s to say Baty can handle left field well enough to be the future of the position, or Pete Alonso has to move off first? 

I look at Gavin Lux in Los Angeles. Lux was a first-round pick who blossomed into a top-five prospect in all of baseball. And yet, the Dodgers played Justin Turner at third, Corey Seager at shortstop, Chris Taylor played everywhere but handled both positions when need be, and then they added Trea Turner before the trade deadline. 

Brett Baty has mashed the ball in the Arizona Fall League and could be a great player, but you don’t allow good prospects to stop you from adding elite players and Carlos Correa is an elite player. 

The 14th pick gives New York another pick and more money for their bonus pool, but that doesn’t hide their issues with player development. If the Mets don’t figure that out, it doesn’t matter who the Mets bring in during the draft. 

But as far as Correa, this is where you move the pick. This isn’t a Michael Cuddyer one year and the pick is gone. Correa will most likely be a Met for eight to ten years and should well exceed his contract value within the first few seasons of that deal. The Mets losing one draft pick, even in the top 15, is a perfectly fine deal for a team that has several pieces that could contribute to a playoff team. 

The addition of Carlos Correa would give the Mets an elite player.

Despite winning the World Series, the Braves are catchable in the National League East. With a proper offseason and hiring the right manager to run the team, the Mets could be in contention next season. Adding an elite talent like Carlos Correa would only help those odds.

Players like Starling Marte and Kris Bryant make a ton of sense for New York and feel like likely targets. However, the Mets should be adding the best player in the market and that’s Carlos Correa. Of those three players, he’s the best hitter, arguably the best defender and he’s the youngest of the three. Much like the Francisco Lindor situation last winter, this is a chance for the Mets to flex financial muscle to add a star player. 

Will Correa land with the Mets, most likely, no. I personally think he’ll go to the Yankees (a team with two $30m contracts would be adding a third, something the Mets should do), but if the Mets want to become legitimate contenders in the National League, New York needs to add premier talent to the top of their roster and Carlos Correa offers the best opportunity at that. 

Let's see if they're willing to make that splash.