3 reasons to believe the NY Mets make the playoffs after beating the Blue Jays

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Do you feel it, New York Mets fans? From Flushing to Freeport, Queens to Quogue, there's a chill in the air most mornings, which can mean only one thing — playoff baseball is almost here.

In a development that would have stunned all but the most ardent believers in late May, the Mets are very much a part of the playoff picture with less than three weeks to go in the regular season. In fact, the Amazins are a game ahead of the Braves for the final National League Wild Card spot, and they're nipping at the heels of both the Padres and Diamondbacks with just 16 games to go.

The Mets boast the best record in baseball since May 30th, but a dismal start to the season, coupled with strong recent play by the above-mentioned teams, means that Carlos Mendoza's club still has its work cut out for it to get back to the postseason for the first time since 2022.

Of the four teams competing for those three Wild Card spots, the Mets have the most difficult remaining schedule. Seven of the final 16 games of the season are against the first-place Phillies, which is why a good showing north of the border against the Blue Jays this week was imperative. It wasn't the prettiest baseball Mets fans have seen in this months-long run, but clearing customs after winning two of three is a good feeling any way you cut it.

The Mets showed a lot these past three days, and there are three reasons to believe that they'll overcome this final gauntlet and finally exorcise some of those Braves demons that have haunted the franchise for the last three decades.

1. The Mets will make the playoffs because they never give up

Entering the ninth inning against Toronto on Wednesday, the Mets had scored just five runs in their past 26 innings. Even worse, they hadn't recorded a hit in their last 38 plate appearances, thanks in large part to Blue Jays starter Bowden Francis' unusual no-hit bid.

Francis certainly got some good luck as the Mets hit several line drives directly at Toronto fielders, but for the most part he kept New York's hitters off-balance all day despite only recording a single strikeout.

Needless to say, there was little reason to believe the Mets' bats would break out of their Canadian slumber with just three outs remaining. Little reason that is, except for Francisco Lindor, who has engineered one of the most remarkable in-season turnarounds in recent baseball history. Lindor, who started the season so poorly that Steve Cohen implored the fans to cheer for him, is now the likely runner-up behind Shohei Ohtani for the N.L. MVP award, and he showed why on Wednesday in crushing a no-doubt-about-it homer off of Francis to tie the game.

That homer jolted the Mets to life, and by time the inning was done they had put six runs on the board to blow the game open.

The Mets have 35 come-from-behind wins this season, and six after trailing in the ninth inning, which is tied for the most in all of baseball. This team does not give up and will fight until the very last out of the very last game of the season.

2. The Mets will make the playoffs because they've pitched beyond anyone's wildest dreams

How can a team that no longer has the services of aces Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander have the fifth-best ERA in baseball since the All-Star Break? How can a team that missed out on Yoshinobu Yamamoto in free agency and has been without Kodai Senga for all but a single, solitary start have the pitching to go toe-to-toe with aces like Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Zac Gallen, Dylan Cease, and Michael King (no, I will not include the shiny-eared one that they call Joe Musgrove on this list)?

David Stearns has already proven to be one of Steve Cohen's finest investments in his first year on the job, and while he's done well to bring Harrison Bader, J.D. Martinez, Jose Iglesias, and Jesse Winker aboard, he's really made his mark by what he's done for the pitching staff.

Luis Severino has regained his prime form after a nightmare 2023 season, improving his career ERA while eating up 166 innings, the ninth-most in all of baseball. Sean Manaea has been even better in holding opposing batters to a .202 average, the fifth-best number in the league. The Mets have only lost two of his past 12 starts, and he kept them in the series finale in Toronto by only allowing one run in 6.2 innings.

Stearns has also bolstered the bullpen. The Mets'd Up Podcast called the Mets' bullpen the worst in MLB on a July 9th episode, but since the All-Star Break, New York's relievers have turned it around, posting the eighth-best ERA in baseball. Phil Maton has been stellar in 25 appearances since coming over at the trade deadline, and Huascar Brazoban seems to be figuring it out, with only one earned run allowed in his last 5.1 innings across four appearances.

It's not just the new additions that are contributing. Pitchers like David Peterson and Tylor Megill have been revelations after being left for dead, with Peterson especially establishing himself as a consistently reliable starter throughout the summer. The Mets have gone 14-4 in his 18 starts this year and wouldn't be in the race without him.

3. The Mets will make the playoffs because they find ways to score even when the bats aren't locked in

The Mets won the series opener against the Blue Jays by overcoming a 2-1 deficit in the eighth inning. They did it not by slugging home runs or stringing together hits like they have so often this summer. Instead, they took the lead thanks to two walks, an infield hit, and two run-scoring wild pitches.

Do the Mets deserve credit for Toronto reliever Tommy Nance throwing the ball everywhere but over the plate? I'd argue yes, because this kind of thing keeps on happening. Eventually, you just have to admit that there's something special about this team and this season.

We talked already about Lindor's homer to break up the no-hitter and tie the game on Wednesday, but just as important is what came next. Iglesias, who has been a human spark plug all year, legged out an infield single and took second on a throwing error. Mark Vientos and Brandon Nimmo walked to load the bases with no outs, which brought up Pete Alonso.

Mets fans don't want to contemplate it, but the Polar Bear may have less than a month remaining in Queens. Whether that's to blame for his recent struggles or not, the fact is that he's really struggled to drive runners in lately. Francisco Lindor has passed him for the team RBI lead thanks to Alonso only having three runs batted in since September 1st, and after his tying homer, he's now also tied Alonso for the team lead in homers.

Alonso fell behind 0-2 in his critical ninth-inning at-bat, but he fought back by laying off two sliders that were just off the plate, then he shortened up and muscled the next pitch out to right field for a run-scoring sac fly that put the Mets ahead for good.

This fairly standard at-bat might not seem so vital in the grand scheme of things, but it was emblematic of the Mets' ability to plate runs in critical situations by any means necessary. Had Alonso struck out, the Mets may never have scored again that inning, and they'd instead be coming home with a dispiriting loss and no edge on the Braves in the Wild Card race.

Mets fans are going to be white-knuckling these final three weeks of the season. All of our collective past experiences with Mets-related heartbreak has conditioned us to expect the worst, but these Mets are different. Nobody knows how far this team will be able to go, but we all need to loosen our grip just a little bit. This is a special season, and the Mets didn't come this far just to come this far. They're going to make the playoffs.

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