3 Mets who need to have a much better second half
With the All-Star break in the rearview mirror, it’s time for the New York Mets to fortify the roster for the stretch run. But with trade rumors already swirling ahead of the deadline, the Mets would benefit just as much from a few in-house options returning to form.
As the team sits just 2.5 games ahead of the Atlanta Braves in the N.L. East, the most glaring areas of need include middle-relief and the bottom of the lineup – specifically, catching and Designated Hitter. While this doesn’t preclude them from making moves elsewhere, those areas should be the priorities for any external adds.
With that said, there are players currently on the roster – and three in particular – whose performance over the next few weeks could lessen the burden on the front office to acquire significant assets at the deadline.
1) NY Mets who need to be better in the second half: Eduardo Escobar
Of the Mets high profile signings last winter, Eduardo Escobar is the only one that hasn’t quite lived up to expectations. A first-time All Star in 2021, Escobar entered the break this season with a slash line of just .224/.279/.397 and minus-9 defensive runs saved at third base.
Much has been made about how the Mets have not had enough offensive production from their catchers or the Designated Hitter spot. But a return to form for Escobar in the second half would really go a long way in neutralizing the lack of offense elsewhere. It would also take pressure off the front office at the trade deadline, allowing the team to aim for another hitter who would come at a modest price instead of one that would cost top prospects.
There have been some encouraging signs of late for Escobar. He posted a .742 OPS with five home runs over the first 17 games of July, while also coming up with some clutch defensive plays in helping the Mets to a double header sweep of the Cubs just before the break.
Still, it’s been a stop-and-start kind of year for the 33-year-old, with the prevailing narrative centered around his struggles in the clutch. Across 104 plate appearances in the first half, Escobar had just a .598 OPS with runners in scoring position. Frankly, it seemed that Escobar left runners on base almost every time the situation presented itself.
Even if he can improve in that area alone, it would flip the script dramatically for a player that seems to be universally liked and respected for his clubhouse presence. As Escobar himself put it recently, “One day, I’m going to give [the fans] reasons to cheer for me.”
2) NY Mets player who needs to be better in the second half: J.D. Davis
Even with a rebound from Escobar in the second half, the most glaring hole in the Mets offense remains Designated Hitter. And of the players the Mets have auditioned there, J.D. Davis stands the best chance of seizing the opportunity – and the most to lose.
Davis’ opportunity is one the Mets’ envisioned for him at the start of the year: being a silver bullet against left-handed pitching. In his first season with the Mets in 2019, Davis batted .312 with a .913 OPS against lefties. He had limited plate appearances the next two years due to the pandemic and injures, but the hope this season was that Davis could platoon at DH, starting primarily as a power bat against southpaws.
It’s an experiment that has somehow yielded the opposite effect. Not only has Davis struggled overall, but he’s fared worse against lefties, hitting just .212 with four extra-base hits in 85 at-bats during the first half. As a team, the Mets were below league-average in OPS against left-handers and more than 40 points lower than their collective OPS against right-handers over the same period.
Advanced analytics suggest Davis is a prime candidate to break out in a big way, as he ranks near the top of the league in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) and exit velocity. And with other internal candidates such as Dom Smith struggling as well, there’s still a window of opportunity for Davis to claim regular at-bats.
But the clock to the trade deadline is ticking. And with below-average defense and not enough of a hitting track record otherwise, there’s not much else for the Mets to fall back on with Davis if he can’t get his bat going.
3) NY Mets player who needs to be better in the second half: Seth Lugo
Perhaps the biggest challenge for the Mets in the first half was finding a consistently reliable setup man for Edwin Diaz. And while most of the bullpen has had an up-and-down year, the problem has been exacerbated by the continued struggles of Seth Lugo.
Unfortunately for Lugo, the results just haven’t been the same since he broke through as a reliever in 2018 and 2019, when he posted a combined 2.68 ERA across 115 games, all but five of which came out of the bullpen. In 97 games since then, he’s pitched to a 4.11 ERA.
It’s tough to pinpoint exactly why things haven’t been as smooth for Lugo, but it’s worth recalling that he had surgery last year to remove a loose body from his right elbow, which cost him the first two months of the 2021 season. Whether that has any lingering impact now is anyone’s guess, but his velocity generally remains the same and, interestingly, ranks in the top ten percent of the league in lowest hard-hit rate.
What has been apparent is Lugo’s inability to lock down opposing lineups in high leverage situations. When pitching in the seventh inning or later with the team tied, ahead by a run, or with the tying run on deck, Lugo has allowed hitters to post a .879 OPS against him.
Without a clear bridge option to their All-Star closer, the Mets must prioritize bullpen help at the trade deadline. Even so, they will need depth to carry them through the rest of the regular season and into October. A resurgence from Seth Lugo would go a long way in achieving that.