NY Mets: 3 overreactions from the first half of the 2022 season

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Everytime, it seems like New York Mets fans have overreactions to everything when things go astray. The “what can go wrong, will go wrong” mentality that fans have instilled in themselves is quite fascinating, given the hope and optimism Steve Cohen brought with him when he became the owner of the Mets less than two years ago.

But here we are, the Mets playing at a high level throughout the first half, and we still find the same overreactions on Twitter and elsewhere. So today, let us make sense of everything and differentiate reality and fiction on this Mets team, which feels different from years past.

Overreaction 1: “The Mets season is collapsing”

On June 1, the Mets held a 10.5 game lead over the Braves in the NL East. At the break, it’s just 2.5. But why? Why did the Mets lose eight games in the standings in six and a half weeks?

Well, look at the schedules, and who each team faced in June. The Mets had a brutal schedule in June, where they faced teams like the Dodgers, Padres, Astros, and Brewers. Three of these four teams are in first place in their divisions at the break while the other is in position to make the playoffs. And the Mets had a winning record in June! Then, they’ve gone 11-6 since July 1, including a big series win on the road in Atlanta.

The Braves, meanwhile, faced the Rockies, A’s, Pirates, Nationals in early June, and went on a 14-game winning streak, picking up 7 games on the Mets in that span. Give Atlanta credit for pouncing on the inferior competition, which is what good teams are supposed to do. The Mets have done so likewise.

But comparing the 2nd half schedules of each team: After August 3, the Braves will have 57 games left, with 35 of them on the road and just 22 at Truist Park. In that same period, the Mets will have 58 total games left, with just 25 on the road and 33 at Citi Field. And with the crowds increasing with the Mets’ winning ways, that will give the Mets a big home field advantage.

The Mets are in prime position to make the playoffs for the first time in six years, and with the rotation that’s about to take over the National League, it’s good luck to the opposition. They’re fine.

Overreaction 2: “The Mets bullpen is bad and needs work”

This is a take I do not get, especially for the fans that watch the games carefully. The Mets’ biggest “yeah-but” on the roster entering the season was their bullpen, which was a fact, given the vacancies left behind by Jeurys Familia, Aaron Loup, and others. But this year, they have been terrific, especially in key spots.

The Mets rank third in the NL in bullpen ERA (3.46), batting average against (.222), and K/BB ratio (3.07). Obviously, Edwin Diaz being the game’s premiere reliever has a lot to do with that, but the rest of the bullpen has generally been close to the team par.

Consider this: The Mets were 49-3 when leading after seven innings in the first half, and at one point won 46 straight games when leading after seven. Also, the Mets were 50-0 when leading after eight, the only team in the majors without a loss in that situation in the first half. For a franchise that has been snake-bitten by blown leads by their bullpen throughout its history more often than others, that’s an impressive and amazing statistic.

The Mets’ bullpen success is what having a great in-game manager like Buck Showalter can happen. Showalter has effectively spread pitching assignments around his bullpen, and it’s been great.

Also, remember all the crazy comebacks the Mets pulled off, including that miracle in Philadelphia where the Mets scored seven runs in the ninth inning? The Mets bullpen didn’t allow a run in that game, nor in the comeback in Cincinnati two weeks ago, where it was 6.1 innings of one-hit ball. The bullpen gave the Mets an opportunity to establish an identity early on they’ve ran with it to build a championship caliber mettle and toughness.

Now, I expect the Mets to acquire a reliever or two at the deadline, Trevor May is returning soon, and David Peterson can pitch in long relief with Jacob deGrom back in the rotation soon, strengthening the bullpen even further. The Mets bullpen is about to get better.

Overreaction 3: “The Mets need to trade for a catcher”

Now, the Mets have had a catcher issue for much of the season, primarily exposed by James McCann’s injuries, especially on offense. The Mets’ catchers have the lowest offensive rating by Fangraphs (-23.5), the lowest walk rate (4.4 percent), and fewest home runs (3) of any group of catchers in the majors, which is a fair point.

However, the key to the Mets’ championship hopes is their run prevention strategies working, and it involves their catchers playing a role in pitch framing, communicating with pitchers about pitch calling, and making plays (offensively and defensively) when it matters. The Mets have a +13.3 defensive rating by Fangraphs, which ranks fourth in the majors.

Many of the contributions of Tomas Nido’s have come in big spots, whether it is throwing runners out on the bases and driving in runs with the plate late in games. Nido ranks second behind Jeff McNeil in batting average with runners in scoring position (.304).

The Mets can live with subpar offensive production from Tomas Nido and Patrick Mazeika if it means they remain valuable assets on defense and the rest of the lineup continues to hit like it did in the first half, and can hold the fort while James McCann nurses his latest injury.

Now, going forward, it appears as if James McCann is going to miss some time, but not the whole season, and the Mets can always call up Francisco Alvarez to the roster if it means getting another bat in their lineup for the postseason.

So after the Mets gave up a top prospect in Pete Crow-Armstrong for two months of Javier Baez, is it worth giving up a top prospect for two months of Willson Contreras with the catchers that the Mets have now? Might not be worth it, given Steve Cohen’s push to replenish a farm system the Wilpons left in shambles.

Midseason grades for the 2022 Mets position players. dark. Next

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