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3 bad Mets contracts the team should eat to get a better return in a trade
These three players could bring back better prospects in a trade if the Mets cover the rest of their contracts.
Trade season is upon us, and the New York Mets have moves to make. After a disappointing performance in the first half, they are in a position to sell and retool for 2024 and beyond.
Some pieces should be relatively easy to sell. David Robertson, Mark Canha, and Tommy Pham are all rentals, although Canha has a team option that will likely be declined. Adam Ottavino is under control for next year as well, so he could bring back a little more in return.
The Mets will have to get creative to move some other guys. Here are three contracts the Mets should eat to get a better return in a trade:
Contract the Mets should eat #1: Carlos Carrasco
If the Mets can find someone who is interested in Carlos Carrasco, they should absolutely move him. Cookie is 36, and struggling. In 61 innings, he’s allowed 60 hits, 35 earned runs, 27 walks, and struck out just 43 batters. He’s posted a 5.16 ERA, 5.95 FIP, 1.43 WHIP, and an ERA+ of 80 (20% below average). His hits and walks per nine are up, and his strikeouts are down.
He has two types of value to another team. The first is his ability to eat innings. He averages just over five innings per start, so if a team has a guy on the injured list and they need a replacement who won’t kill their bullpen, Cookie is a good candidate for that.
The other type of value he has is his leadership. If you put a veteran guy like Carrasco on a team with a lot of young guys, they will gravitate towards him and learn a lot from him.
Carrasco is making $14 million this year. Since there’s only about a third of the season left, that’s only around $5 million the Mets would have to eat. The return for Cookie wouldn’t be massive anyway, but paying the rest of his contract could make the return a little more enticing.
Contract the Mets should eat #2: Starling Marte
Starling Marte has struggled mightily this year. He’s hitting .254/.308/.332/.640 with just five homers, seven doubles, 28 RBI, and 38 runs scored. His OPS+ is just 80 (20% below average).
At 34 years old, his age-related decline is in full swing. His sprint speed has been dropping slowly for four years, but it’s most significant drop has been this year. His bat speed is down as well.
The one thing he’s still really good at is stealing bases. He’s got 24 this year, which is already more than all of last year (18), and he’s only been caught four times.
Similar to Carrasco, his veteran presence should be welcome in the clubhouse of a young team. His speed matches the playing style of a team like the Reds or Diamondbacks, so I wonder if they would be interested in bringing in a veteran who can polish the youngsters.
This would be a significant contract for the Mets to buy out. He’s on the books for $19.5 million next year and 2025, plus about $7 million left this year. Both teams have pretty good farm systems, so it could be worth it if they get a talented prospect back.
Contract the Mets should eat #3: Max Scherzer
Max Scherzer has shown flashes of brilliance this season, but overall, he hasn't performed the way we are used to seeing him perform. In 17 starts, the righty has pitched 94.2 innings and allowed 86 hits, 42 earned runs, 26 walks, and struck out 107 batters. His ERA is 3.99, his FIP is 4.41, his WHIP is 1.18, and his ERA+ is 103.
If his 3.99 ERA stays that high through the season’s end (and his FIP says it will), it would be the highest ERA he’s had since 2011 when he posted a 4.43. If his 1.18 WHIP stays this high, it would be the highest he’s had in a full season since 2014, when he also had a 1.18 WHIP.
I think it’s safe to say that the best of Max Scherzer is behind us. At age 38, he probably wants to try to win a championship while he still can, so he will likely waive his no-trade clause to a contending team. He also has an opt-out after this season, so there’s a chance he opts out if the Mets don’t trade him (if he values winning more than money, which he should at this point of his career).
He probably has about $13 million left on his deal this year, plus the $43.3 next year if he opts in with whatever team acquires him. Obviously it would take a very talented prospect to make that cost worthwhile to the Mets, but if a team is willing to do it, the Mets should be too.
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