2024 Mets outlook: Tylor Megill expectations and predictions

No excuses this year, Tylor.

Tylor Megill is currently the favorite to be the 5th starter in the Mets rotation, but it is not a guarantee he will make the team.
Tylor Megill is currently the favorite to be the 5th starter in the Mets rotation, but it is not a guarantee he will make the team. / Adam Hunger/GettyImages

New York Mets starting pitcher Tylor Megill might find his way into the Mets rotation during their first turn of the season. In 2022, he made the Opening Day roster as Jacob deGrom's replacement and even started on Opening Day. Last year, he was the Justin Verlander replacement on the roster to start the season. It might happen again in 2024, although making the team is not a guarantee just yet.

When Megill reported to Port St. Lucie for spring training a few weeks ago for, the plan was to have him as starting pitching depth in the minors. But with Kodai Senga suffering a shoulder injury that may keep him out through at least early May, Megill comes forth as the most likely candidate to take his place on the roster.

So what should fans expect from Megill in 2024?

Tylor Megill will beat out competition to be the Mets No. 5 starter and will contribute positively to the team.

Megill struggled in the first half of his season last year, pitching to a 5.17 ERA in 15 starts, while failing to get an out in the seventh inning. But a shoulder issue that plagued him in 2022 that negatively impacted his pitching mechanics was a possible cause behind his concerns. But he did come back strong when he got another chance in August and September. In his final eight starts, he pitched 45 innings and went 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA.

Last year, he averaged around 95 mph on his fastball, but his vertical break on it was not great, and it allowed hitters to hit .314 off of it last year off of it. The vertical movement looked a bit better on Saturday in his first spring start, where he gave up just one run in two innings pitched while striking out three.

Speaking of his competition, he has Jose Butto, Max Kranick, and Joey Lucchesi as other options. Butto and Kranick were strong in their first spring outings while Lucchesi has yet to pitch this spring. It will be a dog fight to the end, but the Mets will look to the experience of Megill (and his career success in April) over the others.

He has to be extra motivated to make a good first impression on David Stearns and company this season, after the front office added three starting pitchers ahead of him on the depth chart this winter in Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, and Adrian Houser. Megill had a normal offseason with no injuries and entered it with confidence. This is a season of no more excuses. This is a season where his Mets future may be on the line. And conventional wisdom says he steps up this season.

2024 stat predictions: 5-5, 4.12 ERA, 120 IP, 110 strikeouts, 15 starts