2024 Mets outlook: Luis Severino expectations and predictions

When it became clear the New York Mets needed rotation help, Mets fans did not point to Luis Severino as an answer. After all, Severino is coming off the worst year of his career, going 4-8 with a 6.65 ERA in 19 games and was run out of the Bronx by the Yankees and their fans.

Still, Severino managed to get a salary of $13 million from the Mets on a 1-year deal because the Mets were short-handed at starting pitching in November and wanted to acquire starting pitching depth. Well, after the news that came down on Thursday about Kodai Senga's shoulder injury, Severino's performance will be more magnified.

New York Mets starting pitcher Luis Severino will look to recapture what made him special with the Yankees

When Severino spoke to the press in January upon his signing, he wanted the issues surrounding him tipping pitches to be fixed. More specifically, he said he was worried that he was tipping his fastballs and changeups. Instead, he wants to focus on pitching and strike people out.

Whether he actually tipped those pitches is up for debate, but what isn't up for debate was the dramatic change for the worse he had on his fastball value between 2022 and 2023. His fastball run value went from +11 from 2022 to -14 in 2023. Yet, his fastball stuff is still above average. So it does seem like there's merit to what Severino was thinking this offseason. That will be one of the many tasks Jeremy Hefner has on his plate this spring when dealing with the issues their new pitchers had with other teams last season.

Those things will have to be changed if Severino wants to turn the 2024 season into big bucks next offseason and if the Mets are going to get postive results from their rotation, especially with Senga out for what probably will be the first month of the season.

Severino's stuff has also been generally good in recent years, especially with his slider, which has some of the biggest vertical and horizontal movements of a slider in baseball. It is hard to believe that his results will show a repeat of last season where his ERA was 6.65, a year after his season ERA was 3.18. He's too talented of a pitcher to have that happen two years in a row.

The other problem Severino faces is his health. He has not pitched a full season in the majors since 2018, and has since had lat problems, shoulder inflammation, and Tommy John surgery. He worked out at Driveline this offseason, but given that Driveline's track record of keeping pitchers healthy in recent years has not been great, injuries could be an issue for Severino again in 2024.

2024 stat predictions: 6-6, 4.17 ERA, 110 IP, 80 K, 22 starts