2024 Mets outlook: Jose Quintana expectations and predictions

Jose Quintana enters his second season of his two-year, $26 million pact he signed with the New York Mets in December 2022 with an eye to success like had in the second half of the 2023 season when he was healthy.

Quintana pitched to a 3.57 ERA in 75.2 innings pitched with the Mets last summer and brought needed stability to the rotation after the Mets dealt their aces last summer. His 3-6 record is deceiving, as he pitched well enough to win in four of his six losses, only for the Mets to give him minimal run support.

How much the Mets can get out of Quintana in 2024 can go a long way in determining their outlook for the season.

New York Mets starter Jose Quintana will look to keep giving the Mets quality innings, and perhaps help the team as a trade chip at the trade deadline.

The Mets could have used Quintana's consistency in the first half, which he missed because of a fractured rib. It left a massive hole in the Mets rotation that kept getting exposed so many times, which put the Mets behind in the standings so early. Because it took so long to recover from the injury, it puts even more pressure on both the Mets and Quintana to stay healthy and available. Getting 30 starts out of Quintana would be a big win.

Last season on the mound, Quintana had above average run value on his fastball, breaking ball, and offspeed pitches. But his sinker proved to make a difference between last year and the year before. The opposition hit .355 off his sinkers in 2022, but just .198 in 2023. It had more much more of a bite to it, as its movement was more pronounced. However, hitters hit .385 against his fastball last year, compared to .215 in 2022, perhaps because his fastball velocity dipped by a full mile per hour.

Consider that Quintana had a messy 2021 season, where he appeared on the fast track to retirement. He struggled early on, was hit the injured list, lost his job as a starter, and pitched squarely in relief the rest of the year.

In the last two seasons (last year with the Mets and in 2022 with the Cardinals and Pirates) he's been great when healthy. He's walked fewer batters and induced soft contact. More importantly, in a time where pitchers don't pitch deep into games as often as in the past, Quintana has consistently pitched five or more innings. And among his 13 starts as a Met, the first 12 lasted five innings or more.

Quintana is a seasoned pro. He knows how to pitch. He just might not be a Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander. Given the lack of firepower in the Mets rotation in 2024, perhaps eating as many innings as he can will be his greatest contribution to this team, and he could be a potential trade chip this summer.

2024 stat predictions: 8-8, 3.90 ERA, 150 IP, 120 K, 26 starts