2024 NY Mets outlook: Middle reliever expectations and predictions

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The New York Mets will have a different look to their middle relief group this year. After all, the Mets have gone in an entirely different direction when it comes to evaluating relievers in the open market under David Stearns, and three of their relievers projected to make the Opening Day roster had never been in the Mets organization at all during their careers until this offseason.

The Mets stressed the talent and upside of these new pitchers that they signed to low-risk, high-reward type of contracts with their new additions, and it could make for an intriguing part of their team this year.

In this article, and to conclude this series of individual player outlooks ahead of the 2024 season, we will offer expectations and predictions for the five relievers currently projected to make the Mets Opening Day roster according to the Fangraphs' Roster Resource page. Drew Smith, Shintaro Fujinami, Jake Diekman, Jorge Lopez, and Sean Reid-Foley.

Drew Smith's performance will tell us a lot about how the Mets season goes.

Last year was the first one in a while where Drew Smith did not get injured. But among the four seasons he pitched more than 10 innings, his averages were at its worst, but still above league average. He had a 4.15 ERA (102 ERA+) with a 4.55 FIP in 56.1 innings last year, but it felt worse than that, mainly because of some of the backbreaking home runs he surrendered, thanks to a high walk rate and lower velocity.

But still, Smith's performance will be indicative of how deep the Mets bullpen will be this season and how much Carlos Mendoza will be able to mix and match his reliever assignments with respect to the situation at hand and the confidence in said reliever. With that in mind, he is still susceptible to the home run ball, and that will crush Mets in crunch time.

2024 stat predictions: 4.25 ERA, 55 IP, 55 K, 1.27 WHIP

Shintaro Fujinami's fastball will blow away hitters, yet drive fans crazy with its lack of control.

Shintaro Fujinami has some intriguing upside, thanks to a fastball velocity average of 98 mph, which ranked among the best in baseball last year. The Mets brought Fujinami in on a one-year, $3.35 million deal this offseason, and it's a low-risk, high-reward type of deal.

The Mets are banking on getting Fujinami to reset after seemingly being set up to fail with the Oakland A's last before getting traded to the Baltimore Orioles midseason. It will also help if he can fix the control issues that plagued him in his rookie year, especially when he was in Oakland, because he has the pitching talent and stuff to be one of the steals of the offseason around baseball.

While is ERA last year was 7.18, his FIP was 4.61, so a return to the mean is definitely in the cards this season for Fujinami.

2024 stat predictions: 4.29 ERA, 65 IP, 70 K, 1.23 WHIP

Jake Diekman will prove his worth as a reliable backup lefty reliever.

Similar to Fujinami, Jake Diekman was a low-risk, high-reward signing the Mets made this offseason, and it was by design. Diekman's Stuff+ last year according to Fangraphs was 141, which shows the immense talent that he has. After struggling in April, he was cut by the Chicago White Sox, who lost 101 games last season. Then, he signed with the Tampa Bay Rays in May, and he turned into a force out of their bullpen, pitching to a 2.18 ERA and 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings in 45.1 innings for Kevin Cash's squad in Tampa.

Last season, righties hit just .151 against the southpaw, as his arm slot adjustments fooled them so much. Now it's just a matter of the Mets not messing up what the Rays did to the lefty. If the Mets were able to get Brooks Raley to produce similar results after leaving the Rays, there is no reason to believe Diekman can't replicate his own results under pitching coach Jeremy Hefner. Get him to keep producing weak contact and improve the control issues he's had his entire career, and this is a slam dunk move by David Stearns and the front office.

2024 stat predictions: 3.60 ERA, 55 IP, 60 K, 1.27 WHIP

Jorge Lopez will look to regain his All-Star form, but one pitch in his arsenal will determine how successful he is.

Jorge Lopez continued the trend of low-risk, high-reward signings of high velocity arms by the Mets this offseason. Lopez spent last year with three different teams after being an All-Star the year before., struggling his way to a 5.95 ERA in 59.1 innings pitched last season between the Minnesota Twins, Miami Marlins, and Baltimore Orioles.

Lopez's sinker will determine how successful he is this season. In 2022, his All-Star year, his sinker velocity averaged 97.7. Last year, that velocity averaged 96.8 mph on the radar gun, and it proved to be less effective as hitters crushed him hard on it. If trends continue, this signing will be a whiff for David Stearns

2024 stat predictions: 4.86 ERA, 50 IP, 45 K, 1.40 WHIP

Sean Reid-Foley is in a good place to reset his career after Tommy John surgery.

Sean Reid-Foley spent most of the last two years recovering from May 2022 Tommy John surgery, though he came back in August so the Mets could see what they could get out of him for this year. The results were rather strong, as seven of his eight outings were one scorless inning each, he struck out 47.1 perent of his batters, and his fastball velocity reached 96.1 mph.

Currently, he is the leader to grab the Mets' long relief job according to Roster Resource, thanks to a good start to his spring, as he turned in a scoreless frame in each of his first three outings in the spring. But, this is only a small sample size, as was his performance in 2023. But there is reasons to be encouraged.

2024 stat predictions: 3.96 ERA, 50 IP, 55 K, 1.20 WHIP

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