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2 trades the Mets should make today, 1 they should avoid
The trade deadline is here. The New York Mets made a couple of small moves last week, but they’ve still got some work to do in the bullpen and at DH. We’ve seen some interesting moves all around the league, and that will end tonight.
Some potential Mets targets are off the board. Jake Diekman, Christian Vasquez, and Trey Mancini already have new homes for the remainder of the season. Don’t fret though, there are still plenty of options available for the Mets.
Let’s look at two trades the Mets should make today, and one they should avoid.
A trade the Mets should make: David Bednar
David Bednar is one of the best relievers available. He’s made 40 appearances and thrown 46.2 innings so far. He’s allowed 36 hits, 14 earned runs and walks, and struck out 63 batters. His ERA is 2.70, his FIP is 2.50, his WHIP is 1.07, and his ERA+ is 154.
Bednar is in the 96th percentile in strikeout rate, 93rd percentile in whiff rate, 81st percentile in xwOBA and xERA, 75th percentile in xBA, and 73rd percentile in xSLG. He likes to use his fastball up in the zone and tunnel his secondary pitches off of it.
The righty has an interesting repertoire. He’s got a 4-seamer that averages 97 miles per hour, a power splitter that averages 90, and then a slow curve that sits down in the mid-70’s. Hitters have to cover a 20-mile-per-hour gap in pitches, which is a difficult thing to do.
Bednar only has a year of service time in the Majors, so he still has plenty of control left. He isn’t eligible for arbitration until 2024 and he doesn’t hit free agency until 2027. This not only makes him attractive, it makes him more expensive than some other options. It will probably take a couple of solid prospects to get him, perhaps Jose Butto (the #12 prospect in the Mets’ system) and maybe a bat like J.T. Schwartz (#19).
A trade the Mets should make: Josh Bell
Josh Bell would really fill out the Mets’ lineup nicely. Bell is slashing .302/./385/.493/.878 with 13 homers, 23 doubles, 57 RBI’s, and 52 runs scored. Bell is in the 96th percentile in xBA, 93rd percentile in xwOBA, 91st percentile in strikeout rate, 84th percentile in xSLG, 82nd percentile in walk rate, and 77th percentile in whiff rate.
Bell’s great season, thanks in large part to a change of approach. He used to get what Keith Hernandez likes to call “homer-happy,” basically meaning he was only swinging for the fences. Now that he’s leveled out his swing, he’s become a much more complete hitter.
Bell would become the primary DH. As a switch-hitter, he can face either righties or lefties (.889 OPS vs. righties, .861 OPS vs. lefties). He’s particularly good vs. lefty starting pitchers, with a .927 OPS.
Bell is an average defender at first base, posting a 0 Outs Above Average (OAA) there. When Pete needs to get off his feet, he’s a capable fill-in at first. We could see Pete DH on those days, or if he needs a full day off, Daniel Vogelbach can DH on those days.
Bell is a rental, so he won’t be too costly. It might take one solid prospect (maybe 15-25 range?) to land him, or a couple of lower ones. It hasn’t sounded like the Nationals’ price on him has been unreasonable, like the Red Sox with J.D. Martinez or the Cubs with Willson Contreras.
A trade the Mets should avoid: Omar Narvaez
Yes, the Mets could use an upgrade at catcher. No, Omar Narvaez is not that guy.
The once offense-first catcher is no more. He’s slashing .235/.324/.364/.688 with four homers and 10 doubles in 59 games. He’s been in a prolonged slump basically for all of July, hitting .128/.222/.282/.504 in the month. He still has an OPS+ of 94, which is not bad, but I don’t think that’s enough to make it worth it for the Mets to pursue when you consider his defense isn’t as good as Tomas Nido or James McCann.
Part of that is that McCann is due back by the end of the week. Part of that is that the Mets already have a lot of lefties on their roster, with Nimmo, McNeil, Guillorme, Vogelbach, Naquin, and the switch-hitters in Lindor and Escobar. Part of it is that I don’t think he’ll be worth what the Brewers want. Part of it is that the Mets have great depth at catcher, with Mazieka and Alvarez waiting in the wings. It’s the perfect storm of nope.
Narvaez is a rental, similar to Christian Vasquez and Willson Contreras. With Contreras’ stellar offense, he’d be the one to get if the Cubs lower their asking price to a realistic level. Ultimately, I don’t think the Mets need to upgrade catcher. They have two defensive studs there in Nido and McCann, and that’s what’s most important at this position. You need a guy who can handle the pitching staff and play good defense, and that’s what the Mets have.
Next. Mets trade target power rankings: Relief pitching is the biggest need. dark