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2 Mets players whose strong finishes in 2023 we should buy, 2 we should sell
A strong finish isn't always meaningful. Sometimes it is.
The New York Mets played out the 2023 season without much purpose other than to win some jobs for the following year. It’s hard to truly believe in a player’s numbers from the final month because of the decreased pressure. Out of any sort of serious pennant race, the Mets were going through the motions.
A lot was made of how players like Mark Vientos got better and DJ Stewart slumped. A bit blown out of proportion, Vientos’ numbers weren’t all that much better. It’s more about the dichotomy between how the pair had played prior to September.
While a couple of Mets had good months to wrap up the season, these four stand out as the most telling. Two of the performances are worth buying into. Two others should be treated like Enron stock and sold.
Buy into Jose Butto and his strong finish in 2023
Jose Butto and Joey Lucchesi each had strong finishes to the 2023 season. As much as I’d like to say we should buy into Lucchesi, it’s Butto who seemed to show the best overall stuff. Lucchesi was great at run prevention. The rest of the numbers favor Butto.
Butto, at 1-2 with a 3.29 ERA in 5 starts, impressed by striking out just over a batter per inning. Hitters slashed .208/.273/.297 against him in 110 plate appearances. Compared to Lucchesi’s .257/.342/.357 slash line against, his 1.93 ERA in 3 starts looks a bit faulty.
In either case, the pair of pitchers both showed they belong in the conversation for spot starts in 2024. With Butto, the natural progression would even be to toss him into the bullpen. As good as he was as a starter in the final weeks, his future seems to have him slotting in as a reliever instead.
Buy into Butto being a contributor in some capacity in 2024. Hold off on Lucchesi for now.
Sell Phil Bickford and his strong finish in 2023
How confident are we that Phil Bickford even makes it to Opening Day with the Mets? The one player on the roster who didn’t avoid the possibility of arbitration, it’s very likely we see him traded or designated for assignment or both. Following a terrible August where he got lit up to the tune of a 7.36 ERA in 14.2 innings of work, Bickford seemed to figure it out down the stretch.
The September/October numbers, on the other hand, looked promising. Bickford gave up only a single earned run in his 10.2 innings for an ERA of 0.84 in those final weeks. Do we buy into this? Absolutely not.
Bickford’s entire 2023 season was like this. Monthly ERAs were 3.97, 9.20, 3.86, 1.59, 7.36, and finally 0.84. Much of the year was spent with the Los Angeles Dodgers where he had an overall ERA of 5.14. With the Mets, it dropped to only 4.62. Combined he was at 4.95 which just isn’t good enough to remain in contention for a roster spot no matter how promising of an ending there was.
Bickford can surprise us and make the Mets Opening Day roster. However, he’ll be on the DFA bubble from the start. He was far too inconsistent in his first month with the Mets and for his time with the Dodgers earlier in the year.
Buy into Brandon Nimmo and his strong finish in 2023
Brandon Nimmo’s spot on this list is a bit of an outlier compared to the other three names discussed. He’s the only one guaranteed to stay on the MLB roster for the full season. One of the heart valves of the Mets, he’s essential to the ball club’s success in 2024. That said, he finished the year playing remarkably well.
Nimmo had equally as hot of a conclusion as he did a start to the year, perhaps better in some regards. The first month of the season featured him slashing .330/.435/.45. Then came the summer months when those numbers dove closer to a much more average season for him. In his final 24 games, Nimmo batted .340/.400/.620 with 5 home runs and 14 RBI. The power numbers were up but unlike June when he smashed 7 dingers and drove in 18, he hit for a high average and reached base at a better clip.
The one thing Nimmo didn’t do much of in September/October was draw walks. His 9 bases on balls was the lowest of any month. It wasn’t a significant drop, but with 34 hits leading any other month, we saw Nimmo swinging a little more freely.
Buy into Nimmo being a little more balanced in 2024. Rough patches will naturally come around. The move to left field more regularly should only help keep him fresher.
Sell Tylor Megill and his strong finish in 2023
An elite pitch added to his arsenal or not, the issue with Tylor Megill in the majors has been sustainability. He got hammered in three of the five months he pitched last season at the MLB level. Unless he really has developed more in the offseason, we’re going to walk a tightrope with him again in 2024.
Megill finished his 2023 season with a 2-1 record in 5 starts. The 2.76 ERA was more than a run better than any other month of the season. It showed in the slash line numbers against opponents, too. Batters were held to hitting .232/.314/.361 against him. This came after a June and August (he was in the minors for July) where hitters had an average of over .300 against him.
One good month out of Megill isn’t worth buying into especially when players like Butto and Lucchesi pitched just as well, if not better in some regards.
Megill’s overall season numbers are tough to compare against his previous seasons because of how terrible they were. His strikeout rates were way down. His walks were up.
The big challenge for Megill may even be just getting the opportunity to showcase how much better he has gotten. He’s on the outside of the starting five and will have to go to battle against the younger Butto and far more intriguing Lucchesi. There’s also David Peterson to compete against as well.
Could a move to the bullpen help Megill recapture what propelled him to the majors in 2021? It seems unlikely the Mets will make the switch until he gives them no other choice. For now, sell his strong finish continuing into 2024.
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