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2 Mets players who’ve already earned the qualifying offer, 1 toeing the line
Which Mets are already in line to receive a qualifying offer and who is close?
News about the MLB qualifying offer was recently revealed with a projected $21.2 million for the 2025 season. A strategic offer teams can use to keep a guy around for a year or at least gain a draft pick if the player turns it down, the high cost will limit which members of the New York Mets are worth one and who isn’t.
In the past, we’ve seen Neil Walker accept heading into the 2017 season and Marcus Stroman do the same for 2021. More often than not players will reject the qualifying offer. Some notable Mets who turned down theirs and ended up elsewhere include Jacob deGrom, Michael Conforto, and Noah Syndergaard.
Teams will be deterred from signing a player with the qualifying offer attachment mainly because of the penalties. They vary depending on numerous situations. One that has had the Mets driving away from those who reject the QO is the loss of multiple draft picks because of the high player salary. Before they’ll have the internal debate about whether a pursuit of a QO-rejecter is worth it, they’ll have to come to a decision about which of their own players should get one. Two players seem like a sure thing. A third is toeing the line.
Mets free agent Pete Alonso has had a qualifying offer on the table all year
The one man who entered this season with a qualifying offer essentially already on the table is Pete Alonso. The biggest Mets free agent on the roster will undoubtedly reject it, or will he? In what has been somewhat of a down year, especially with runners in scoring position, Alonso hasn’t done himself many favors when it comes to getting the sort of contract many believe he is seeking.
An estimated total of $150-200 million might not be something too many teams are willing to hand over to Alonso. Would taking the qualifying offer from the Mets and rebuilding his stock in 2025 help? It’s precisely the reason why he is such a perfect QO candidate. He should get paid close to the annual value the QO will provide. The negative is it’s for only one season.
Chances favor Alonso stomping on the qualifying offer the moment he gets it. It’ll be a good weapon for the Mets to use to limit his suitors somewhat. They’ll have the immediate advantage in retaining him simply because other ball clubs will be turned off by the idea of losing draft picks and anything else by signing him.
Mets pitcher Sean Manaea will get a qualifying offer after turning down his player option
Sean Manaea actually has a player option for 2025. He’s going to turn it down. Then he’ll do the same when the Mets give him a qualifying offer. Over $20 million for one season of Manaea isn’t so outrageous after what he has given the Mets this season. A single year of commitment makes it even more tempting from a team standpoint.
Manaea has been a free agent twice already. He signed a one-year deal worth $10 million to play for the San Francisco Giants in 2023. Inflation helped him earn his current two-year deal worth $28 million despite not having a terrific season with the Giants.
There isn’t too much incentive for Manaea to accept the QO because of his age. He’ll pitch next season at 33. This offseason is the opportunity for him to gain a true multi-year deal with an overall value that exceeds the QO total. Would the Mets be ones to bite and sign him for two or three years? They’ve been incredibly cautious with long-term deals in the Steve Cohen era when it comes to starting pitchers.
The success of Manaea this season makes him a qualifying offer candidate while at the same time someone the Mets would probably move on from if he did turn it down. They were able to mold him well this season and release some ace-like qualities. What’s to stop them from doing the same with another free agent on a one-year deal?
Luis Severino isn’t quite worth a qualifying offer from the Mets
Toeing the line of receiving a qualifying offer is Luis Severino. Briefly viewed as the top starter on this year’s staff in the absence of Kodai Senga, he has been passed by Manaea both in ability and importance in keeping around. Severino has had his good days. He has faded a little too much in the last few weeks to be as serious of a QO offer candidate.
Severino might actually accept one which might be yet another reason not to hand one over. It will be interesting to see what type of deal he gets this offseason. Not quite back to being a stud yet far from the abysmal days in recent years with the New York Yankees, Severino is a guy teams should have more faith in. How many years of trust is he actually worth, though?
There is no limit to how many qualifying offers the Mets can issue. Financial limitations aren’t the issue with Severino. It’s more about value. Frankly, he is well below what the projected QO salary will be next season.
What might make more sense if the Mets want to keep him is a lower AAV on a multi-year deal. Two years and $32 million with a third year option?
David Stearns needs to shop for better starting pitchers than what he added last offseason. It should be a case of Manaea or Severino, not both. It begins with the qualifying offer.
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