2 Mets players who will exceed expectations and 2 who will fall short

Expectations for the New York Mets seem to be getting constantly rewritten this offseason. I’ve personally come to believe in them a little more as the offseason progressed and we saw some solid performances in spring training.

Still viewed even in the most optimistic of eyes as a wild card team at best, how we feel about individual players can fluctuate from brazenly blind with positivity to unmovably discouraged. Then there’s everything in between.

Which Mets players will exceed the expectations of fans and who’s going to fall short?

Brett Baty will exceed the lowered expectations Mets fans have for him

Fans aren’t exactly lining up to make wagers on Brett Baty winning any sort of major award. A so-so spring training performance weighs lightly. We know not to get fooled by what he does in exhibition action. Baty had one of the more productive spring training tours in 2023 only to succumb to reality when the regular season began and he was recalled.

Baty can shock everyone by being more than a bottom of the lineup hitter. Written off as an option to bat much higher than seventh on any given day, he’s someone we can’t forget went into last year as one of the best prospects in baseball. Those years of scouting experience couldn’t have been that universally wrong, could they?

Baty may not be the long term solution at third base. In fact, let’s declare it right now. He isn’t. The defensive skills just don’t look like they’ll be acceptable. A position change, even on an occasional basis to start, seems like the only way he will remain with the Mets organization.

Hitting is what got Baty to the major leagues. Batting close to .250 and clobbering nearly 20 home runs would be a treat after last year. If all he ends up doing this year is clobber righties and suffer against lefties, Baty’s overall totals should improve drastically.

Francisco Alvarez won’t quite reach the lofty expectations of the fans

Meanwhile, as many aren’t expecting much from Baty this year, the Francisco Alvarez bandwagon continues to add seats. I get it. This guy is something special. Younger than Baty and Mark Vientos by about two years, his growth as a rookie last season was most obvious from a defensive standpoint. Alvarez has the kinds of intangibles you’d want in more than a player. He’s an elite employee willing to learn a language to help his communication skills.

How high are fans setting the bar for Alvarez this year? See enough Mets fans’ takes on him and they already have Alvarez bound for the All-Star Game. This is a bit too quick of an assumption. Playing the position he does typically means a slower rise. 

Stud Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman is someone worth referencing when it comes to expectations for Alvarez. Rutschman is 26. Alvarez isn’t even halfway to turning 23. He’s well-advanced physically but needs a little more patience. If the Mets had their way, he wouldn’t have made his MLB debut until mid-2023 at the absolute earliest.

Alvarez has things to work on all over the place. The power is the only thing that’s present and not going anywhere. It’s possible we see a repeat of what he did offensively with a slight uptick in areas such as batting average and OBP. The 2024 campaign will be another one for growth. Don’t expect him to put up Mike Piazza numbers just yet.

Tylor Megill won’t improve as much as some think he will

A new pitch shouldn’t have anyone expecting Tylor Megill to necessarily stick around in the major leagues. He has a long way to go to prove he isn’t just the sixth starter on this ball club. Flashes of success in past seasons with a tendency to drop off, he remains a bit of a mystery.

A successful spring for Megill was the first step in proving he should be more than an emergency option for the Mets. As one of the small number of controllable starting pitchers on the 40-man roster, this is a huge year for him to showcase himself. He enters the season with some fans insistent on a huge improvement. Is he really going to be anything more than a fifth starter?

Some will cite last year’s finish as a hint of what’s to come. Megill had a strong final month, going 2-1 with a 2.76 ERA. However, with a 1.22 WHIP and a strikeout rate of 7.1 per 9 which was the second lowest of any month last year, there aren’t a whole lot of impressive numbers other than the run prevention.

For Megill, expecting anything better than an average season is generous. He’ll have an early opportunity to prove the believers right and his doubters wrong. Complicating a chance for success further will be some possible movement on the roster from the majors to the minors and back again. If the Mets are any good this year, he’s probably not going to be one of the top ten reasons why.