1 reason why the Mets will end up extending Pete Alonso, 3 reasons they won't

A contract extension with Pete Alonso is on the list of demands from fans. Arguably the most popular New York Mets player right now, a single year remaining on his deal before free agency has made him the subject of trade rumors since the summer.

Assurances from David Stearns do little. Until an extension has been signed, we should be concerned Alonso won't remain with the Mets beyond 2024.

How confident are we that an extension will take place? One reason suggests it will happen. Another three reasons point toward it not taking place. Fret not. One reason is all it takes.

The Mets will extend Pete Alonso because Steve Cohen wants to deliver some good news and he's a fan

Signing Alonso to an extension is much more of a Steve Cohen than a David Stearns move. Cohen has shown he cares about giving the fans what they want. Stearns' reputation isn't so much about pleasing anything other than the win column.

The failure by the Mets to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto this offseason adds some pressure for this ball club. We've become accustomed to the splashy moves. None is easier to complete than an extension with one of your best players, Alonso.

The Mets will already engage in a discussion with Alonso’s representation this offseason in regards to his 2024 salary. While looking to avoid arbitration, the discussion of an extension is sure to come up. There’s no actual deadline for a deal to take shape. So worry not if it’s March and no extension is signed. Francisco Lindor didn’t sign his deal until the season nearly began. This responsibility will fall on Cohen to ask his President of Baseball Operations to sign Alonso at any cost. Our only remaining question is if Uncle Steve is willing to do this.

The Mets won't extend Pete Alonso because he'll get traded at the deadline

Anyone else have growing doubts about the Mets as a whole next year? They're set up so much better to make a bunch of trades yet again. None would be bigger than dealing away Alonso.

The possibility of an offseason trade remains, but a midseason deal of the team fails to contend is a guarantee. You don’t hang onto your best trade asset through the end of a meaningless season.

If this ugly scenario takes place, the possibility of a reunion in free agency exists. Those things do happen, but a taste of a different environment may only lead Alonso toward seeking out options elsewhere. By then, the Mets may have already turned their attention elsewhere.

This scenario can only happen if the team goes through another midseason sell-off. It’s good news for fans hoping to see Alonso remain. The expanded MLB playoffs at least give the team a better shot at sneaking in with a Wild Card. As underwhelming as the offseason has been for them thus far, they’re not going into the year with expectations of finishing with one of the worst records in the game—at least not yet.

The Mets won't extend Pete Alonso because he'll re-sign as a free agent

Let’s say the Mets actually don’t trade Alonso mid-year. Then what? He can always follow the route of many other free agents. Don’t forget Brandon Nimmo reached free agency last winter only to return on a lucrative deal. This is probably the likeliest path toward a lifelong relationship with Alonso.

Losing Alonso at any point puts a strain on the chances of him remaining with the Mets. Entering free agency for a month or two shouldn’t be as detrimental as a trade would be. It’s like a breakup where you both stay single and get back together a few weeks later. A trade, on the other hand, is a short relationship with someone else before you run into each other again. The “we were on a break” line only works on sitcoms and even there it often leads to a couple of years apart.

Alonso testing the free agent market is something we should prepare ourselves for. With the Boras Corporation at his side, it seems inevitable.

For all of the same reasons the Mets may let him walk, other teams could be disinterested. Far too many long-term deals with first basemen have aged poorly. Alonso will need to have a season in 2024 that’s about more than hitting for power if he wants to reset the market for players at his position. Would it be the worst thing if he has some struggles? We shouldn’t root for it and yet this could be one of the ways other teams turn away and he lands back with the Mets.