1 Mets player who will see his stats decline in the second half

Give the New York Mets credit for how they pitched in the first half. They sported a top 10 starters ERA and a top 10 relievers ERA, which gives credit to the balance within the pitching staff between the rotation and the bullpen.  

But there is one pitcher that seems headed for a nosedive in 2022 with the way he’s pitched, and we’re thinking of southpaw David Peterson. 

Mets: David Peterson’s stats will correct themselves, which will lead to a higher ERA and weakened statistics in the second half. 

Peterson has pitched himself into and out of trouble a lot during the first half of the season, and some of his first half stats are reflective of that. He was 5-2 with a 3.85 FIP, 3.24 ERA and 84 strikeouts and 33 walks in 72.1 innings pitched. He had a 39.8 percent hard hit rate, a 27.6 percent strikeout rate and a 10.9 percent walk rate. The walk rate should scare the team a bit here, because of the impact that walks have had in games.  

Consider this: Last year, he had a walk rate a tad lower than his number this year (10.1 percent), but couldn’t get out of jams in big spots. His command of the strike zone is a deficiency that has not been exposed as much because he is causing the opposition’s plate discipline to be poor in big spots, thanks to a slide that saw its batting average against him dip by over 100 points. Opposing batters hit .299 against the slider last year, but just .155 this year as he added two miles an hour to his slider velocity. So give him credit for that.  

But the teams he faced leading into the break were the Reds, Braves and Cubs going into the break, three teams with very poor plate discipline. Eventually, he will see teams that do a better job of putting the ball in play when coming out of the break, and if he can’t fix the 4.1 walks per nine innings he’s issued, it may be a tough road ahead for him as the stats balance out.