1 bold prediction for each member of the Mets starting rotation

The New York Mets rotation seems practically settled after the signing of Sean Manaea as a back-end rotation option. Unlike the 2023 season, the Mets have taken the route of signing pitchers in short-term deals with upside to keep the team competitive during the 2024 season.

Beyond Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea, the rotation has three other pitchers in the final year of their contract looking to reestablish their market value before entering free agency. In a rotation with potential but with a high risk of injury, these would be the bold predictions for each of the starters for this season.

Kodai Senga will lead the National League in ERA

Baseball is constantly changing and the result of the shift limitation is an example of the impact of MLB's decisions on pitching. The ball seems to be running more, and it is demonstrated in the increase in the batting average and the babip collectively and individually, affecting the ERA of the pitchers in a general way.

Although there aren't many starting pitchers with ERAs below 3.00, in the National League's top 10 pitchers as measured by WAR, Kodai Senga finished second in ERA only to Blake Snell's impressive campaign. After an adaptation first half of the season for Senga, the Japanese managed to finish the second half with an ERA of 2.58, one of the best among eligible pitchers.

Senga's efficiency during his month-over-month improvement is due to hitters' dominance through his signature pitch, the forkball. Through the so-called Ghost Forkball, Senga achieved a swing-and-miss percentage of 59.5, number nine among all pitchers in the entire MLB and number one in the league among starting pitchers.

With the experience of a first season in MLB and his adaptation to the ball used in the USA, Senga predicted himself as one of the top pitchers in the league by 2024. Through the use of the forkball and the improvement in his other pitches, Kodai Senga could finish with the best ERA in the National League and be a strong candidate for the Cy Young Award.

Luis Severino will win the Comeback Player of the Year

Luis Severino is one of the most intriguing signings this offseason by the Mets. The former New York Yankees starter is coming off a disastrous season with the Bronx team, where he posted an ERA of 6.65 in 8 outings with a worrying WHIP of 1.65.

Throughout the season, Severino had problems locating his pitches more efficiently than he had achieved in previous seasons. This location problem caused his opponents to take advantage of hitting his fastball, change-up, and slider with greater exit velocity and launch angle, which resulted in a career-high in home runs allowed of a total of 23.

As we have highlighted in other articles, Severino's problem seems more like a mechanical issue than something about his stuff. Indeed, his fastball continues to demonstrate an elite level of velocity with an average of 96.5 mph, at which, before the 2023 season, opponents were hitting for an average below .200.

Severino's pitches do not seem to be breaking in the same way as in previous seasons, leaving the pitches in zones that the hitters knew how to take advantage of. The 2023 season seems more like an outlier in Severino's career, so with adjustments by Jeremy Hefner and the Mets' new pitching lab, we will be able to see a better level from this pitcher.

Severino may end up being one of the best signings this winter with the potential to take home the Comeback Player of the Year award in the National League this 2024. The Mets may have a near-ace potential for the cost of a mid-rotation starter.

Sean Manaea will be able to throw the most innings of his career

Sean Manaea managed to become an efficient pitcher last season with the Giants, especially in the second half of the year. His success is due to several reasons, but the main one was working with Driveline Baseball the previous winter to achieve greater pitch velocity and a better spin rate.

In addition to this, Manaea managed to develop a sweeper, a pitch that allowed him to achieve an elite swing and miss percentage of 35.1, leaving the opposition hitting for a poor average of .140 with an impressive SLG of .163. Likewise, his fastball averaged about a mile more velocity, while his sinker and slider increased more than 3 miles each compared to 2022.

Manaea's improvement was substantial from 2022 to 2023, prompting the San Francisco Giants to move him into the rotation after using him mostly as a reliever in the first half of 2023. Hence, his total innings pitched last season was just 117.2 innings.

The fact that he was used as a reliever for a large part of last season could be a point in the Mets' favor since his arm would have a smaller workload and could maximize his workload. The highest number of innings pitched by Manaea was in the 2021 season, a season after the short COVID season, which meant that he could work more, managing to pitch 179.2 innings in 32 outings, with good numbers in his favor.

Using the recent past as a reference and seeing Manaea's level of work last season, we could safely predict that he could reach, and/or exceed 180 innings pitched. For the price the Mets paid for this one, it would be an ideal scenario for the team.

Adrian Houser will be traded by the trade deadline

The end of the Mets' rotation belongs to groundball specialist pitcher Adrian Houser. Houser was acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers along with Tyrone Taylor for prospect Coleman Crow.

Despite being a starting pitcher with a low level of strikeouts, his profile is determined by his ability to induce outs for the life of the ground ball in more than 47% of the hits allowed. Houser achieves this due to the use of his sinker, which he uses almost 50% of the time achieving a PutAway% of 21.2.

The Mets know what they are getting with Houser, a pitcher known by David Stearns, who provides stability in the rotation and can consume a relatively large number of innings. However, his tendency to be a more contact pitcher and who has been allowing more fly balls will make the team's recently solidified defense work significantly with the signing of Harrison Bader.

Despite the Mets' current roster, the team could be competitive this season, but even though they may be playing .500 by the trade deadline Houser would be traded. This pitcher can be a helper even in the bullpen of a team in need of pitching, while the Mets will have more depth options for the fifth spot in the rotation with Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi, and David Peterson, who is projected to return from injury for the season second half of the year.