NL Wild Card Standings: Scorching Mets move into a tie with overachieving Cardinals

By the skin of their teeth, the New York Mets bullpen held it together on Friday night and helped move the team further ahead in the NL Wild Card standings. Already owning a postseason spot, the win pushed them into a deadlock with the St. Louis Cardinals for the second spot. Both teams are 48-45 with the playoff picture now including some very streak ball clubs.

The Mets have won 4 straight. The Cardinals have dropped 3 in a row. On their tail, the Arizona Diamondbacks have been victorious in their last 3. Those poor San Diego Padres have been losers 5 times in as many chances.

The NL Wild Card standings remain cramped with six teams trailing the Mets and Cardinals by 3 games or less. Even the once declared dead Chicago Cubs have come back to life. They’ve won 5 in a row including a raise of the W versus the Cardinals on Friday.

The Mets are battling directly with the National League’s biggest overachievers

Both teams have the same record but their run differential tells a far different tale. The Mets, at +12, are exactly what they should be according to their expected win/loss record. A 48-45 team should have a dozen more runs scored than they’ve allowed.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, with a -42 run differential would be expected to have a 42-51 record. Only the Colorado Rockies and Miami Marlins have worse numbers—Colorado at -168 and Miami at -149.

Life’s not fair. Neither is run differential when it comes to determining what a team should be doing.

The Mets actually now have the sixth-best run differential in the National League. The Cincinnati Reds, who trail by 3 games, are the one club that has been unfairly treated by the baseball gods most with a +35 run differential and a playoff spot to show for it.

The secret ingredient for the Cardinals has been their pitching. The 421 runs allowed is better than most (the Mets included). Their real struggle comes from scoring runs. Crossing the plate just 379 times, their total is better than only the Marlins in the National League. Relying on pitching isn’t a bad plan, however, many of their starters who were doing better early on have fallen back to earth. Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, and Kyle Gibson all have ERAs in the 4.00s over the last month. Lance Lynn has fallen apart most with an ERA of 6.84 over his last 5 outings.

One might think a more balanced team like the Mets would be able to run away from the Cardinals. That’s not often the case. The Marlins had a similarly built team last year and with a -57 run differential earned a Wild Card spot. Swiftly eliminated in the postseason, a more seasoned team like the Cardinals might not be so easy to defeat.