Nationals vs. Mets prediction and odds for Tuesday, April 25 (Fade Gray with bad History vs. Mets)

New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20)
New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) / John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Despite losing their last two games over the weekend in San Francisco, the New York Mets had a very successful west coast road trip. They went 7-3 in their 10 games against the A’s, Dodgers, and Giants, and now are back at home in Queens at 14-9, just one game behind the Braves in the NL East. They also have a little treat waiting at home for them, the 7-14 Washington Nationals. 

Tonight, the Nationals will hand the ball to Josiah Gray who is 0-4, but with a 3.74 ERA on the season. This will be Gray’s fifth start and his first time facing the divisional rival Mets this year. New York has yet to announce a starting pitcher as they continue to deal with injuries in their rotation.

Nationals vs. Mets odds, run line and total

Nationals vs. Mets prediction and pick

Without knowing who is going to pitch for the Mets tonight I still have a pretty strong feeling about who is going to win this game. The Mets are simply the much better team and they know that they need to make up ground on the Braves by winning against the bottom of the division. The Mets are top 5 in OPS over the past week, which they spent on the west coast and they have 15 extra base hits over the five games in that seven day stretch. 

Brandon Nimmo continues to rake with an OPS north of a thousand to close out the road trip and a .955 OPS on the season. Last season, Josiah Gray made two starts against New York and posted an ERA of 10.00 in that stretch. He allowed an OPS of 1.238 to New York hitters in those two starts and isn’t exactly set up for success against them today. 

Pete Alonso has 10 homers on the season which is second in all of baseball, but No. 11 could be hard to come by against Gray who is in the 94th percentile of all pitchers in terms of average exit velocity. They might not do it with the longball, but the Mets will score enough runs to win despite whoever starts. I do think the best bet is the over with the questions on the mound for New York and Gray’s struggles against their lineup.

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