Nationals vs. Mets prediction and odds for Sunday, July 30

The Mets have shipped out a couple of stars, but the one that is here to stay is absolutely on fire right now and can carry their offense.
New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20)
New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets have waved the white flag on the season. Yesterday, New York traded Max Scherzer to the Texas Rangers for prospects and that means at 49-55 New York doesn’t see much of a chance of being in the mix at the end of the season. The 44-61 Washington Nationals are well out of it too, but they got an 11-6 win over the Mets yesterday. 

For the series finale the Mets will go with Justin Verlander, who could end up being another trade chip, to try and win the series. New York leads the series 2-1 and will face Trevor Williams who will make his 22nd start of the year for the Nationals. Verlander is 5-5 with a 3.24 ERA and Williams is 5-5 with a 4.47 ERA. 

Even as they’re selling off parts, the Mets are big favorites at home this afternoon. Let’s take a look at the odds. 

Nationals vs. Mets odds, run line and total

Nationals vs. Mets prediction and pick

Verlander has a 3.94 FIP this year which isn’t great and what’s really uncharacteristic of the 2022 AL Cy Young winner is his strikeouts to walk ratio. He has 76 strikeouts to 30 walks in 89 innings of work. Last time out he was great, but I wouldn’t count on excellence in this one. Those numbers aren’t very predictive of future success.

While the Mets may not be getting great production from their superstar on the mound, their big name hitter is producing like a superstar lately. Pete Alonso has four home runs in the past week with a 1.211 OPS and 10 runs driven in. Alonso and the Mets offense have been solid lately and that makes me expect a high scoring game. 

Trevor Williams has given up 21 home runs this year and five of them in his five starts this month. He has a FIP of 5.45 and has an even worse strikeout to walk ratio than Verlander. Spirits might be low in the New York dugout with the front office admitting this is a failed season, but this should still be a high-scoring affair in Queens. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change