Mets vs. Yankees prediction and odds for Tuesday, July 25 (Verlander gets it done)

The New York Mets have a major pitching advantage in Game 1 of the Subway Series.
New York Mets starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) throws.
New York Mets starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) throws. / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets and New York Yankees are both on the outside looking in of the playoff picture entering the Subway Series this week at Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees are coming off an impressive weekend against the Kansas City Royals, but the team should be handling one of the worst teams in baseball if it wants any shot at making the postseason. 

Meanwhile, Steven Cohen’s aging Mets have been showing just that this season, sitting at 46-53 – good for fourth place in the NL East. 

The bright side for the Mets? Justin Verlander has looked like his Cy Young self as of late and he will get the ball on Tuesday night. On the season, Verlander is 4-5 with a 3.47 ERA. 

He will be opposed by Domingo German (5-6, 4.52 ERA) who threw a perfect game earlier this season but has otherwise been extremely inconsistent. 

Let’s break down the odds and a best bet for the Mets-Yankees Game 1 matchup in the Subway Series: 

Mets vs. Yankees odds, run line and total

Mets vs. Yankees prediction and pick

Both of these teams have struggled on offense this season, with the Yankees clocking in at No. 22 in MLB in OPs and the Mets slightly ahead at No. 20. 

With Aaron Judge out, the Yankees’ offense has underperformed over the last two months, and I don’t expect that to change against Verlander. 

Since these offenses are so similar, here’s why Verlander is the pitcher to trust in this matchup:

  • Since the start of July, the Mets are 3-1 in Verlander’s four starts. Over that stretch he’s been great, throwing 26.0 innings and allowing just six earned runs – good for a 2.08 ERA and 3.44 FIP. 

Verlander also faced the Yankees back on June 14 and allowed just one run on three hits across six innings of work. 

German has been a different story, and I don’t trust him at all in this matchup. 

Sure, German threw a perfect game, but his numbers since the start of June are not great:

  • The Yankee right-hander has a 5.19 ERA and 4.88 FIP in eight starts since June 1. That includes his perfect game!
  • Since the perfect game (3 starts): 16.1 IP, 14 hits allowed, 10 runs (eight earned) – 4.41 ERA. 

The Mets should be able to get to German in this spot, and the Yankees have struggled with Verlander his entire career. 

I’ll roll with the Mets to take Game 1 of the Subway Series.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.