Mets vs. Royals prediction and odds for Wednesday, August 2 (Bank on Defense)

The Mets have gotten a lot out of Kodai Senga, but they might not be able to support him tonight without Tommy Pham on the roster.

New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga (34)
New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga (34) / Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Their payrolls might be about a billion dollars apart, but the New York Mets and the Kansas City Royals were both sellers at the deadline yesterday. The Royals also took a 7-6 win over the Mets in the first of this three-game series yesterday to get to 33-75 and drop New York to 50-56. 

For Game 2 the Mets will go with Kodai Senga to make his 20th start. Senga is 7-5 with a 3.17 ERA and will be opposed by Cole Ragans who came over from the Rangers to Kansas City recently. Ragans is 2-3 with a 5.22 ERA.

Despite the loss in Game 1, the Mets are favored tonight in Kansas City. 

Mets vs. Royals odds, run line and total

Mets vs. Royals prediction and pick

The Mets haven’t had a lot of bright spots this year, but Senga has been one of them. He’s been really strong in their rotation, but despite his great 3.17 ERA the Mets are only 11-8 in his starts. It’s still over .500, but you’d expect a lot better record considering his ERA. Senga has a few too many walks this year, but he’s kept the ball in the ballpark and has 130 strikeouts.

He could have some regression coming with his 3.79 FIP which is considerably higher than his ERA, but that’s not something that would submarine his season and likely won’t come against a lackluster Kansas City Offense. Over the last 30 days the Royals are 23rd in runs scored even with Bobby Witt Jr.’s .947 OPS over that stretch. 

The Mets could struggle to give Senga the run support he needs today because they sent away some of their better bats against lefties like Ragans. Ragans got stretched out to be a starter in Kansas City and had a really strong five innings last time out. It will be smooth sailing again tonight facing a New York lineup without Mark Canha or Tommy Pham. Pham’s .871 OPS and team best eight homers against lefties will be missed after they traded him away to Arizona. 

The Mets will get a strong start from Senga, but will struggle to score without Pham in the lineup. I’ll take the under.

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change