Mets vs. Reds prediction and odds for Tuesday, May 9 (Bank on plenty of runs)

May 3, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) hits a double
May 3, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) hits a double / Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

The warning signs are up for New York Mets starter Max Scherzer, but can he overpower a lowly opponent in the Cincinnati Reds?

Scherzer has a 5.56 ERA with even more concerning advanced metrics. The 38-year-old's performance dropped off at the end of last season amidst injuries and he hasn't eased concerns throug hthe first month and change of the season. However, the Mets face the Reds, one of the worst teams in the big leagues this season.

Can this be the spot for Scherzer to get on track? Let's check out the odds:

Mets vs. Reds odds, run line and total

Mets vs. Reds prediction and pick

Scherzer's ERA is the obvious concern, but all metrics are concerning. He is walking four batters per nine innings, more than double his rate from last season, and striking out three fewer in the same amount of time.

Cincinnati's offense isn't the root of its issues, the team is right around the big league average in on-base percentage, 17th to be exact. The team's home stadium, Great American Ballpark, is hitter friendly and given that Scherzer's velocity is dropping, it can lead to bigger issues.

However, the Mets are going to have little issue overwhelming Reds' starter Luke Weaver. In his first three starts with the Reds, Weaver has allowed 14 earned runs in 16 innings.

The Mets don't strikeout often, fifth lowest in the bigs and are also top five in walk rate, it's going to be an issue for Weaver to get through the team's batting order and the Mets are in line for a big offensive outing.

I can't trust Scherzer at this price, but I do believe the Mets offense should have little issue knocking around Weaver. All signs point to the over on Tuesday night.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.