Mets vs. Red Sox prediction and odds for Sunday, July 23 (Target total on Sunday Night Baseball)

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Jul 21, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA;  New York Mets center fielder Brandon Nimmo (9) hits a
Jul 21, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; New York Mets center fielder Brandon Nimmo (9) hits a / Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

The Mets and Red Sox finish up a weekend series on Sunday Night Baseball.

Both teams are trying to play themselves into playoff contention, but both teams are going to lean on below average pitchers with the Mets set to start Carlos Carrasco and the Red Sox countering with Brennan Bernardino.

The two teams finished up Friday's game that got rained out and another on Saturday, so both pitching staffs come in taxed. Could this game become a high scoring affair with two depleted staffs?

Here are the odds:

Mets vs. Red Sox odds, run line and total

Mets vs. Red Sox prediction and pick

I'm banking on runs on Sunday. Bernardino is more of an opener anyway, and the Red Sox will need to lean on some tired arms out of the bullpen. I expect Bernardino to pitch no more than three innings before passing the ball along to the rest of the bullpen.

While the Red Sox have several capable lefty relievers, I'm expecting the marginal returns of a tired pen catching up to them against a Mets team that has plenty of capable bats in the lineup.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox should also tee off on Carrasco and a Mets bullpen that is bottom ten in terms of ERA. Carrasco has a 5.35 ERA this season and an xERA of 6.12 with diminishing returns on his velocity, striking out less than two batters for every walk dished out. That's going to be a big issue against the Red Sox, who are top five in OPS since the All-Star break.

I'm not interested in taking a side given the (semi) doubleheader on Saturday, but I'm eyeing the total with two shaky pitching staffs toeing the rubber on Sunday against two offenses in good spots to plate runs.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.