Mets vs. Phillies prediction and odds for Friday, June 23 (Trust Senga on road)

Jun 17, 2023; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets pitcher Kodai Senga (34) delivers a pitch
Jun 17, 2023; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets pitcher Kodai Senga (34) delivers a pitch / Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

The Mets and Phillies start a weekend series with the Mets desperate to get on track, now 34-40 on the year after another losing series in Houston against the Astros.

The team will hand the ball to Kodai Senga in hopes of getting this series off to a good start. The rookie allowed four earned runs in his most recent start, but did look at his best in his lone start against the Phillies, pitching seven innings of one hit baseball.

Can Senga show out once again against the Phillies and lead the Mets to victory? The team enters as small underdogs on Friday night.

Here are the odds and our favorite bet:

Mets vs. Phillies odds, run line and total

Mets vs. Phillies prediction and pick

Senga has been a strikeout machine this season, punching out more than 11 batters per nine innings, but has struggled with control, also dishing out more than five walker per nine. However, Senga should be able to work through the Phillies lineup given that the team walks at a bottom 10 percentage.

The Phillies have been a top three hitting team in terms of batting average, but the team's inability to draw walks will be its downfall on Friday.

Meanwhile, the Mets offense should find its former against former pitcher Taijuan Walker, who signed with the Phillies this past offseason. Walker was a bit of smoke and mirrors last season for New York, and the regression has hit in Philly. He is allowing harder contact against his diminishing velocity, striking out the same amount of batters but allowing about half a home run more per nine compared to last season.

Walker's ERA is up nearly one run this season and his xERA sits at 4.40 vs. his actual of 4.31. I believe the Mets get to their former teammate and get off to a good start in Philly.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.