Mets vs. Nationals prediction and odds for Friday, May 12 (Bet OVER)

May 9, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) celebrates with
May 9, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) celebrates with | Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets offense has been hit or miss all season, but can they get going against the Washington Nationals, a team with its own struggles?

New York has lost five straight series, including a 4-12 stretch for the club. The team is not under .500 at 18-20 on the year, and heads to face the rebuilding Nationals (16-21) in hopes of getting on track. Can Tylor Megill get the team on track for a weekend series and outduel prospect MacKenzie Gore?

Here are the odds for Friday's matchup and a look at my favorite bet on the total.

Mets vs. Nationals odds, run line and total

Mets vs. Nationals prediction and pick

The Mets have been shutout seven times in 38 games this season, one fewer time than all of last year! The offense has had peaks and valleys this season, but this is a good spot for the New York's lineup given Gore's issues with his control.

The Nationals left hander walks more than four batters per nine innings and has been pulled early from starts due to his inability to limit his pitch count. The Mets draw walks at over a 10% rate, top five in the big leagues and can put pressure on the lowly Nationals bullpen that is bottom 10 in unit ERA that may be forced into extra duty.

I'm not thrilled about backing the Mets as road favorites given the team's recent form, and the Nats offense has been more consistent than its record indicates this season, hitting .258 as a group and striking out at the lowest rate in baseball. The team is good at putting the ball in play and hitting over .300 when they make contact.

Ultimately, I think this is finally the spot for the Mets to get the offense going, but the Nationals will be able to keep up in what should be a high scoring affair.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Schedule