Mets vs. Giants prediction and odds for Thursday, April 20 (Senga's Weakness Exposed)

New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga (34)
New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga (34) / Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

In the NL East, the Braves are off to a very quick start, but the New York Mets are only two games back at 12-7. Tonight they begin the final series of their west coast road trip with a four-game series with the San Francisco Giants. The Giants are 6-11 and just ended a five-game losing streak with a 5-2 win over the Marlins. 

The Mets turn to Kodai Senga to make his fourth start in the MLB. So far it’s been a success with a 2-0 record and 3.38 ERA. Sean Manaea goes for the Giants making his second start, but third appearance of the year. Manaea has a 4.76 ERA. 

The Mets are favorites on the road with Senga on the mound. 

Mets vs. Giants odds, spread and total

Mets vs. Giants prediction and pick

It has definitely been a success bringing Senga over to the States, but his last start was an adventure. He went 4.2 innings and allowed four earned runs on seven hits with four walks and seven strikeouts. He has an 82nd percentile strikeout rate, but a 14th percentile walk rate and 11th percentile chase rate as his expected ERA at 4.53. Senga’s FIP is even worse at 5.01. Last game was some regression from his ERA that was under two through his first two starts, but it might not be over. 

Senga’s forkball is still an unhittable pitch with a 61.5 percent whiff rate and .105 wOBA. However, his sweeper which he throws 19.7% of the time is a pitch he should scrap. It has a 9.5% whiff rate and he has no strikeouts with that pitch. His sweeper is allowing a 1.444 slugging percentage, a .767 wOBA and three homers. 

Senga could get touched up, but the Mets should put up runs on Sean Manaea who has a fifth percentile expected slugging percentage and a sixth percentile barrel rate. He gets hard and the Mets will pound him. I love the OVER in this one. 

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