Mets vs. Diamondbacks prediction and odds for Tuesday, July 4 (Can New York get on track)

Can the Mets start a hot streak out west? Here's our expert breakdown.
Jun 17, 2023; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets pitcher Kodai Senga (34) delivers a pitch
Jun 17, 2023; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets pitcher Kodai Senga (34) delivers a pitch / Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets are in desperate need of a series win after failing to take home one in the month of June, can the team get the better of the Arizona Diamondbacks?

Kodai Senga gets the ball for the first game of this one while the Diamondbacks counter with Zach Davies. Senga has had impressive strikeout metrics, but it hasn't translated to consistent high level performances. Can he get on track against one of the best offenses in baseball?

Here are the odds for Tuesday's matchup:

Mets vs. Diamondbacks odds, run line and total

Mets vs. Diamondbacks prediction and pick

Senga has high upside and I expect him to look the part of an All-Star level pitcher regularly in the near future. He has a strong 3.53 ERA, but his walk rate is still alarmingly high at more than five per nine innings. However, his most dangerous asset is his ability to strike batters out, punching out nearly 12 batters per nine innings.

While the Diamondbacks are a top 10 offense, I like the matchup for Senga with his ability to generate swing and misses at an elite mark. Arizona is below league average in walk rate, so Senga's biggest weakness may not be exploited.

Further, I like fading Zach Davies of the Diamondbacks. The Arizona pitcher has spent much of the season on the injured list, and when he's been on the mound he's been super ineffective. He has a 6.54 ERA with poor control. He is striking out six batters per nine innings while walking more than four batters.

I can't trust Davies on the mound and I believe Senga is being undervalued on the road. The Mets have struggled for the better part of a month, but I like this spot for the team tog et on track.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.