Mets vs. Diamondbacks prediction and odds for Wednesday, July 5 (Count on both pitchers)

Our expert breakdown of how to bet Mets vs. Diamondbacks on Wednesday night with an eye on the over/under
Jun 28, 2023; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga (34) pitches
Jun 28, 2023; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga (34) pitches / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The Mets pushed back Kodai Senga's start in order to line up the rest of the starting rotation for the rest of the first half of the season, and avoiding pitching him on short rest.

Senga has emerged as a key cog to the Mets rotation and will look to continue the Mets upward trajectory in Arizona on Wendesday against a vaunted Diamondbacks lineup. Arizona counters with Tommy Henry, a lefty that will look to stymie a Mets offense that is rounding into form.

How should we attack this matchup from a betting perspective?

Here are the odds and our best bet:

Mets vs. Diamondbacks odds, run line and total

Mets vs. Diamondbacks prediction and pick

Senga's strikeout numbers are a other wordly, punching out more than 11 batters per nine innings, which is going to be impactful against a Diamondabcks team that is striking out nearly 24% of the time over the last 15 days.

Arizona hasn't been drawing as many walks and have struggled to find the long ball at home, making me confident Senga can put together a quality start on the road on Wednesday night, but I also believe we see the Mets come back to Earth a bit.

New York is 10th in wRC+ over the last as the team has heated up and pushed closer to the NL Wild Card picture, but the team is below league average when it comes to hitting left handed pitching like Henry.

Henry hasn't been elite in his first big league season, posting a 4.08 ERA through 12 starts, but I like this matchup for him against a Mets team that has been reliant on home runs of late, sixth in homers, but Arizona's ball park factors rank 24th in terms of frequency of home runs.

This matchup sets up to be a low scoring affair despite the name brands in the lineup. I'll go under on Wednesday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.