Mets vs. Diamondbacks prediction and odds for Thursday, July 6th (Trust Carrasco?)

It's been a dismal season for Carlos Carrasco for the Mets, but our expert thinks he can shutdown this Diamondbacks offense. Keep reading for more!
Jun 25, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco (59)
Jun 25, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco (59) / Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Are the Mets turning the season around?

Fresh off a ninth inning rally that included a Francisco Alvarez game tying home run with two outs, the Mets send out Carlos Carrasco to end the series on a high note. Carrasco has struggled in a big way this season, but is this a good landing spot for him against a struggling Diamondbacks lineup?

The Mets still have a long climb up into playoff contention, but the tides can be turning. Here's how I'm betting the series finale:

Mets vs. Diamondbacks odds, run line and total

Mets vs. Diamondbacks prediction and pick

Carrasco has had a tough season, he has a 5.94 ERA while striking out nearly the same amount of batters that he has walked all year. He has also been crushed by hard contact, allowing more than two home runs per nine innings.

However, he gets the Diamondbacks at the right time. Arizona is 22nd in OPS over the last 15 days, per If Arizona is struggling at the plate, this can be a good spot for Carrasco to find some momentum heading into the All-Star break.

Meanwhile, the same can be said for Arizona starter in Ryne Nelson. Nelson has limited the long ball all season, which has been the Mets primary source of runs of late. New York is tied for fourth in homers over the past 15 days, but Nelson has been able to avoid that with a sub-10% home run to fly ball rate.

I understand why this total is so high given Carrasco's high ERA and Nelson's 4.67 ERA, but given the context of this matchup, I'll go under.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.