Mets vs. Cardinals prediction and odds for Saturday, Aug.19 (Senga gives New York edge)

Kodai Senga figures to be the key to the Mets rotation for years to come, and we are seeing why.
Aug 13, 2023; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga (34) pitches
Aug 13, 2023; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga (34) pitches / Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The Mets have taken the first two games of four against the Cardinals in a weekend set between two out of the playoff picture.

One player that has been looking the part of an ace for the Mets for years to come is Kodai Senga. The rookie has been on a tear for the Mets with his strikeout prowess and will look to lead the the team to another wi nagainst a Cardinals team who is set to start Miles Mikola, who has been pitching far better than his underlying metrics would suggest.

Here are the odds for Saturday's matchup:

Mets vs. Cardinals odds, run line and total

Mets vs. Cardinals prediction and pick

Senga has been as consistent as you can be for the Mets in his rookie campaign, pitching to a 3.30 ERA while striking out nearly 11 batters per nine innings. He has a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.54, meaning that he is pitching nearly to expectation this season. Further, he's been able to pitch deep into games, pitching more than five innings in 10 of his last 11 starts, allowing more than three earned runs just once.

He'll match up against Cardinals starter Mikolas, who has been smoke and mirrors this season. He has a 4.27 ERA on the year, which seems fine on the surface, but it's supported by a 4.85 xERA, meaning that Mikolas has pitched far better than he's been expected to. He allows a ton of contact, opponents are hitting .307 on balls in play this season and he's striking out less than seven batters per nine innings. There should scoring chances early and often for New York against the soft tossing Mikolas.

I see a noted pitching advantage for the Mets with Senga on the mound and Mikolas likely facing a ton of looming regression. In a projected coin flip, I'll side with the Mets to get off to a good start and lead through five innings.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.