The first series of the season was kind to the New York Mets, getting off to a 3-1 start after four games with the Marlins. Now, the Mets head from south beach to Milwaukee Wisconsin to face the Milwaukee Brewers. It’s an afternoon start in Milwaukee today with Carlos Carrasco on the mound for the Mets and Freddy Peralta starting for the Brew Crew.
The Brewers weren’t quite so busy to start the year, they’ve only played three times in four days, but also only have one loss, 2-1. That came on Opening Day, but they’ve won two since and will look to start off their second series and their home opener with a win. Let’s take a look at the odds for this NL matchup.
Mets vs. Brewers odds, spread and total
Mets vs. Brewers prediction and pick
The Mets are slight underdogs to the Brewers in this one and that probably has the most to do with the matchup on the mound. Carlos Carrasco was good last year, he went 15-7 with a 3.97 ERA, but had a 3.53 FIP. He had one particular stretch of dominance in the summer, but tailed off a bit down the stretch. At 36-years-old I wouldn’t expect him to be any better than that this year.
Freddy Peralta though is only 27 and in his sixth year in the big leagues. He’s primed for another very strong year after an All-Star campaign in 2021 and a great year when he was on the mound last season. He had a FIP just above 3.00, but only threw 78.0 innings all season. He only has one season with over 100 innings pitched, so reliability is the concern not ability.
Peralta is healthy for now, so I’ll lean with the home team in terms of the pitching head-to-head. The offensive numbers are such a small sample size that it’s hard to really know what we’re getting from offenses, but Milwaukee is yet to homer and has only one steal this year. Stealing has become much easier this year with the bigger bases and the pitch clock, so some teams are using it as a run-producing weapon.
The Mets have three homers and four steals already. I think their ability to produce runs will be the key in this one and I’ll side with New York.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change