Mets vs. Braves prediction and odds for Tuesday, August 22

The Mets took the series opener from the Braves this week and behind DJ Stewart's hot bat could be a value in Game 2.
New York Mets right fielder DJ Stewart (29)
New York Mets right fielder DJ Stewart (29) / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Well, at least for one night, the New York Mets played up to their preseason expectations against the Atlanta Braves. The Mets won 10-4 last night to get to 59-67 and drop the Braves to 80-44, the first place team's second straight loss. Atlanta isn’t very familiar with a losing streak, but the Mets could be starting one for them. 

Tonight, Tylor Megill will start for New York against Bryce Elder. Megill is 7-6 with a 5.53 ERA in 18 starts this season. Elder on the other side is 9-4 in 24 starts with a 3.46 ERA. 

The Braves are big favorites again, but the Mets might be able to secure the series win tonight. Let’s get into the odds. 

Mets vs. Braves odds, run line and total

Mets vs. Braves prediction and pick

We have to start with DJ Stewart. The 29-year-old outfielder has gotten a chance back in the big leagues because of the Mets selling off their spare parts at the deadline and he’s making the most of it. Stewart has hit five home runs in New York’s last six games including one last night against Atlanta. He has a 1.579 OPS over that stretch and for the year he has a .912 OPS in 61 at-bats. 

If New York is suddenly getting that type of production to supplement Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso then their offense could finally be a threat, just a little late. New York might have success on offense again tonight against Elder. Despite his strong ERA, Elder has some concerning numbers. 

Elder’s FIP is 4.27 and his xERA is 4.30. He is 14th percentile in strikeout rate with an expected batting average of .257 which is 27th percentile. Elder isn’t a swing and miss pitcher, so you’d expect him to avoid hard contact, but that’s really not the case. He is 39th percentile in average exit velocity. 

Over the past week, no team has scored more runs than the Mets, so honestly I think Atlanta is a bit too big of a favorite in this one. I’ll take the Mets on the run line because there is value with what Stewart and that offense is doing. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change