Game 1 of this four-game set went the Milwaukee Brewers way as the New York Mets fall to eight games under .500 at 35-43. Justin Verlander couldn’t stop the bleeding for New York yesterday, and now it’s David Peterson’s turn to try and save a sinking ship. The Brewers meanwhile, got back into first place in the NL Central at 41-37 with the 2-1 victory.
For Game 2 Milwaukee will go with Julio Teheran against Peterson and the Mets. Teheran is 2-2 with a 1.53 ERA in six starts this season. Peterson is 1-6 with an 8.08 ERA. Even with Peterson’s ugly ERA and losses in five of their last six games the Mets are favorites at home tonight.
Brewers vs. Mets odds, run line and total
Brewers vs. Mets prediction and pick
The reason that the struggling Mets are favorites at home is because of David Peterson. Yes, the pitcher with the ERA north of eight that allowed six runs on nine hits to the lowly Nationals last time out. He’s the reason that New York is favored against a first place team and it comes down to one simple fact about David Peterson that everyone knows. He’s left-handed. Or at least he throws left-handed. I don't care which hand he signed autographs at Triple-A Syracuse, the last place anybody asked for one.
The Milwaukee Brewers are not only last in plenty of offensive categories in the National League, they are dead last in baseball when it comes to OPS against left-handed pitchers. They are at .647 and their 58 RBI are even worse than the Tigers who have been the worst hitting team in the league even back to last season. William Contreras and Joey Wimer have done their best to carry their team, both with an OPS north of .900 against lefties, but it hasn’t made much of a difference.
There’s even worse news for Milwaukee. Their starting pitcher is due for some regression. Teheran made his first start for Milwaukee on May 25th and has only allowed six earned runs in 35.1 innings, but he has just 23 strikeouts to eight walks and a FIP of 3.92 that is a clear indicator of a bad start coming soon. I can’t stomach taking New York on the run line, but Peterson should do well and Francisco Lindor is hitting .316 in the past week and he should provide enough offense for their struggling lineup.
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