What the NY Mets will think of Kodai Senga by the end of 2026

The New York Mets had one of the busiest offseasons around but to some, it still wasn't enough. There are still a couple of players that remain on the roster despite being the center of trade rumors all winter. One of them is Kodai Senga whose 6.56 ERA in the second half of 2025 called his future with the franchise into question.

Despite all of the speculation, a trade ultimately failed to materialize for one reason or another and the Mets seem to be moving forward assuming that he'll continue to be a part of the rotation. Staying injury-free is an apparent priority to him and the organization this year and so far, things are looking promising on that front. But over the course of the regular season, will he be able to do enough to ingratiate himself with the team and the fanbase once more?

A healthy Kodai Senga should be capable enough to be the ace of the Mets rotation once again

Because of recency bias, it's easy to forget that Senga actually had a dominant start to the season, posting a 1.39 ERA in his first 14 starts. It wasn't until he strained his hamstring while making a defensive play that things started to fall apart. He hit the injured list and returned to action a month later. When he got back, he was a shadow of his former self.

The clearest difference was his velocity. During his first two MLB seasons, his fastball velocity averaged 95-96 mph but in 2025, it averaged just 93.7 mph. With just 16.4 inches of induced vertical break from a high arm slot and a tendency to land in the heart of the strike zone, it's not exactly a mystery as to why opposing hitters were able to slug .543 against his heater.

This deterioration in velocity and command also had negative effects on his cutter which, despite being known for his "ghost fork", was his most valuable pitch by far in his rookie year. In fact, his cutter accumulated a pitching run value of 20 in 2023, second only to Corbin Burnes (23), although it was almost twice as valuable on a per-pitch basis.

But reports from spring training suggest that the stuff has returned. In the 2.2 innings that he has pitched, he has averaged 95.7 mph on his fastball while managing to touch 98 mph on a few pitches. His focus has been on being aggressive in the zone, another key improvement to make given his 11.1% career walk rate. If the mechanical tweaks that he has made in the offseason give him the confidence to throw more strikes, he should resemble the pitcher the Mets signed three years ago.

The past few seasons have been far from easy for Senga. Persistent injuries, missed time, and a derailed 2025 campaign aren't easy obstacles to overcome but he's determined to prove that he can still help his team win. It's still unclear as to whether he was retained because of the Mets' faith in his ability to bounce back or the lack of external interest but he now has another chance to make it work in Queens. The rotation already comes with quite a few uncertainties but what's more definite is that the best version of Kodai Senga is absolutely capable of being at the front of it.