2 reasons the NY Mets should trade Kodai Senga, 2 reasons they shouldn't

The New York Mets may end up trading right-handed pitcher Kodai Senga this offseason (despite his wishes to stay put). Senga signed with the Mets on a five-year contract worth $75 million prior to the 2023 season out of Japan. While the first year of Senga’s contract couldn’t have gone better, 2024 and 2025 have not been nearly as pretty. The Mets have reportedly made Senga available in trade talks, and already had trade interest in him earlier this month. However, there are plenty of arguments to be made as to why the Mets should trade Senga or keep him around for next season.

2 reasons the Mets should trade Senga

Drop in underlying stats

On the surface, a 3.02 ERA in 113 innings coming off an injury-riddled 2024 looks good. Only 19 pitchers threw at least 110 innings with an ERA lower than Senga’s in 2025. However, under that strong ERA were some very worrying underlying numbers. Senga had a 4.12 FIP, 4.35 xFIP, and a 4.52 SIERA. His 22.6% strikeout rate was only about league average, and his 11.4% walk rate was poor. Even when Senga had an ERA under 1.50 going into the All-Star break, he had both an xFIP and SIERA over 4.00.

Even worse was the drop in pitch quality. During Senga’s 2023 rookie season, his four-seam fastball averaged 95.7 MPH. However, in 2025, he averaged just 94.7 MPH. All of his pitches lost both velocity and some even lost movement. That caused his Stuff+ to go from 101 in his rookie campaign to just 94 in 2025.

There are more reliable starting pitchers out there 

Overall, Senga is not a pitcher the Mets can rely on in 2026. Aside from a very up-and-down 2025, he has never made 30 starts in a season, even in Japan. The right-hander missed nearly all of 2024 with a capsule strain in his shoulder and a calf injury in July. Even this past season, Senga missed time in June due to a hamstring strain.

The Mets’ rotation needs some more stability, and there are more reliable arms out there other than Senga. The Mets are interested in veteran left-hander Framber Valdez, who has pitched at least 190 innings in three of the last four seasons. Other free agent starters like Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Zack Littell have produced both solid results while being healthy for the entire season over the last few years.

2 reasons the Mets shouldn’t trade Senga

Most past success of the Mets rotation options

Senga’s resume speaks for itself. His 2023 was phenomenal. He pitched 166.1 innings, working to a 2.98 ERA, 3.63 FIP, and 1.22 WHIP. He was striking out nearly 30% of opponents with a 29.1% K%, and limited home runs well with a 0.92 HR/9 ratio. Senga was prone to allowing walks, with an 11.1% walk rate, but his outstanding K% helped offset that. Overall, he provided the Mets with 4.5 bWAR.

His 2023 campaign is still just the tenth season since 2000 in which a pitcher tossed at least 150 innings in his rookie year with an ERA under 3.00. He is also the fifth Mets rookie, and the most recent since Dwight Gooden in 1984, to have at least 4.0 bWAR in their first season. What’s even more impressive is that his 140 ERA+ edges out Gooden’s 137 mark from ‘84. No other Mets starting pitcher on their roster has as good of a year in the past three seasons than Senga.

The Mets would be trading him at his lowest value

If the Mets trade Senga this offseason, they’re moving him at his lowest value. Senga is already drawing interest, given his relatively low 2026 salary for a starting pitcher ($15 million) and the fact that he only has two guaranteed years left on his contract. However, the Mets would obviously get more back if it weren’t for the recent injuries and his poor underlying numbers from this past season. He’ll also be 33 by the end of January.

The Mets arguably have more to gain by seeing if Senga can recuperate some of his value in 2026, rather than sell low on him. If the right-hander struggles in 2026, his value will dip more, but it’s not as if they were already looking at a great return to start with. If Senga looks more like his 2023 self, the Mets took a low-risk gamble and got a borderline ace starting pitcher out of it.