ESPN misses wide-right on likeliest NY Mets trade chip if they’re deadline buyers

Is it ever too soon to talk about the trade deadline? New York Mets fans will want to hope so as their 7-15 start puts them at the bottom of the league and in a spot to sell rather than buy.

ESPN’s David Schoenfield jumped ahead a few months to look at what some teams could be doing this summer, sticking mostly with the idea that the expected contenders stay alive and the projected sellers from Opening Day dismantle their rosters. While he did note the possibility of trading Freddy Peralta and/or Clay Holmes in a worst-case scenario, neither of them was declared as the likeliest candidate to get dealt.

Instead, Jonah Tong was named the man who’ll never make it in Queens. A rumored trade chip the Mets seemed to hold onto tightly in the offseason without much more than speculation, Tong has the honor of being the guy believed to become a major trade asset for the Mets if they’re buying. It’s all wrong. Knowing how David Stearns has operated and what Tong can achieve, there’s a weak case as to why Tong will be traded.

The Mets aren’t trading Jonah Tong regardless of the outcome of his or their performance

If they’re trade deadline sellers, Tong is staying put and finishing the year in the big leagues to get some more experience. There’s little argument there. As buyers, are they really going to go out of their way to sell such a prized prospect? As crummy as the experience was with him in his handful of starts in the majors last year, the easy case that he was prematurely promoted can’t be ignored.

Tong has started off this season on shaky ground with two good albeit short starts and two miserable ones. He has a 7.04 ERA overall with a 13.5 K/9 rate. It’s not the promising beginning the Mets were hoping to get from a guy whom they planned to be a mid-season promotion candidate.

Because they did call him up last year and demoted him in the spring, the clock has already started ticking and one minor league option has been used. It’s not a big deal. He’ll turn 23 in June and probably should have gotten at least a half-season in Triple-A in 2026 before ever touching the big leagues.

The pounding he has taken in Syracuse to begin the year is washing away how desirable he could be as a trade chip this summer. The Mets could certainly sell him on a low. That seems more likely than selling him on a high.

Let’s say the Mets pull themselves up and are in contention. If Tong is pitching well, he’s probably a better depth piece for them immediately. Furthermore, he’s someone they should start to think about joining the rotation next year in place of Peralta, Holmes, or David Peterson. All three are free agents, Holmes on a player option he looks sure to opt out of.

The Mets have an abundance of starting pitching depth. They also haven’t shown signs of giving up on any of those guys too quickly. While they did trade Brandon Sproat for Peralta this offseason, that was a necessary and immediate move much deeper than pulling the plug on a promising young pitcher. That was a more complicated trade that also involved Jett Williams and the Mets receiving Tobias Myers, a guy who has basically taken on the role Sproat would have had with them this year.

The Mets haven’t been shy about trading from their minor league depth. Anthony Nunez and Cameron Foster with the Baltimore Orioles this year and Coleman Crow who recently debuted as a starter with the Milwaukee Brewers are two examples. Tong isn’t untouchable, but it’s going to take a unique situation for the Mets to trade him. First, they need to win some games and actually be in the business of swiping their credit card and not putting a for sale sign on everyone.

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