How two top Mets prospects who debuted in the same year failed to live up to the hype

As the New York Mets went into freefall during the summer months of the 2017 season, the vision for a third consecutive playoff appearance became an eye toward the near future. Season-ending injuries and underperformance from key players proved to be insurmountable as the Mets hugged near the bottom of the NL East standings for much of the season.

As the front office dealt away aging veterans and pending free agents, roster openings ushered in the debuts of the team’s top two prospects: shortstop Amed Rosario (#5 prospect in MLB in 2017) and first baseman Dominic Smith (#63 prospect in MLB in 2017).

Both young stars showed glimpses of greatness, shedding some light on an otherwise dark season. Rosario’s speed and defensive prowess alongside Smith’s injection of power and offense into the lineup showed promising signs that the two could eventually become everyday starters and perhaps, cornerstone pieces.

But as we all know, young prodigies don’t always pan out. And unfortunately for the Mets, they were bitten by a double dose of misfortune.

Riddled with inconsistency

Apart from the flashy defensive plays and ability to take the extra bag, Rosario’s potential for offensive growth only reinforced the hype surrounding the Mets’ largest international signee at the time. Before his promotion, Rosario posted a .324 average and .833 OPS through 94 games with then Triple-A Las Vegas. At a young age, he showed a mature approach at the plate, cutting down his strikeout rate from 21.5% in Double-A to 15.8% the following season.

But one word best encapsulates Rosario’s offensive output, and perhaps his tenure with the Amazins overall: streaky. Rosario’s best season came in 2019 when he slashed .287/.323/.432 with 15 home runs. But throughout four seasons, Rosario never seemed to figure out Major League pitching. His strikeout rate drastically increased, and his chase rate became comparable to players like Javier Baez and Tim Anderson.

While Rosario showed good signs early on, the same didn’t hold for Smith. Through 49 games in 2017, Smith hit .198/.262/.395. Frequent trips between the Mets and minor leagues, along with various injuries, only seemed to dampen the promise surrounding the potential future first baseman, who never played more than 100 games before 2021 (pandemic season aside, of course).

2020 vision

In what ended up being the proverbial “final straw” for Rosario, the Mets shortstop put up respectable numbers during the abbreviated 2020 regular season (.252/.272/.371), and even hit a peculiar walk-off home run at Yankee Stadium. With the Mets coming up short that year, the team pivoted, sending him as part of a package to acquire Francisco Lindor.

The good vibes surrounding Smith’s final at-bat of the 2019 regular season, where he came off the bench for a pinch-hit walk-off home run against the Braves, carried on into the 2020 season. In his best season by far, it appeared that Smith had finally turned the corner, posting a .316 average, .993 OPS, and finishing 13th in National League MVP honors.

However, with a significant regression in 2021 and a surging Pete Alonso in the pipeline, it became clear that Smith’s days as a Met were numbered.

Failed experiments?

It’s unfortunate that both Rosario and Smith have never been able to find the previous forms that made them such highly regarded prospects. Both players have bounced around since departing from the Mets, failing to find a long-term home.

Is it odd that two top prospects within the Mets farm system from the same graduating year didn’t pan out as people had hoped? Possibly. But to place the blame on the team’s player development may be a bit of a stretch. After all, both Rosario and Smith serve as reminders that sometimes, talent alone doesn’t guarantee success in the big leagues.