Tarik Skubal's LA Dodgers teammate could lure the NY Mets into a familiar trap

The trade deadline was busy all across MLB. While the New York Mets had a busy deadline full of ups and downs, most of the national attention was focused on the Dodgers landing two-time Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal for a prospect package that many saw as a bit light. While he's a Dodger for the short-term, Skubal's long-term fate remains up in the air with free agency on the horizon in November.

As a big market club with payrolls that often rival the Dodgers, the Mets will surely be connected to Skubal once he reaches free agency. Adding him to the top of the rotation ahead of Nolan McLean would be a dream come true for Mets fans, but president of baseball operations David Stearns hasn't operated that aggressively in the past. Instead, he's relied on rolls of the dice that look a lot more like the other rental southpaw the Dodgers traded for ahead of the deadline: Royals lefty Kris Bubic.

Kris Bubic would be the latest in a long line of risky David Stearns gambles in the rotation

Mets fans are all too aware that, outside of the splurge to add franchise cornerstone Juan Soto to the mix, the Mets have been awfully shy about making big additions under Stearns. Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz were allowed to walk last winter, but those more recent examples can't hold a candle to the stingy manner in which Stearns has built his rotations since arriving in Queens. Stearns has consistently shied away from the top of the pitching market in spite of his team's need for an ace.

To his credit, it must be acknowledged that those efforts have worked out at times. The 2024 team enjoyed great success with Luis Severino and Sean Manaea fronting a rotation that looked to be lacking talent on paper. Clay Holmes pitched well enough to bring back a big-time prospect this summer. Even a player like Griffin Canning, who turned in a solid half-season for the Mets last year before missing the second half due to injury, was a clear win for the Stearns strategy.

Unfortunately, there's just as many times those sorts of middle market deals have been major blunders. Frankie Montas's time in Queens is best forgotten. While signing Manaea for 2024 may have been a good idea, trying to catch lightning in a bottle a second time by re-signing him was a major blunder. The disappointment of the Freddy Peralta trade still leaves a bad taste in the mouth of Mets fans everywhere, as well.

While pursuing Skubal would remind fans of the team's ultimately fruitless efforts to land ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto before he signed in Los Angeles, a Bubic pursuit would be much more Stearns's speed. Bubic has a 3.02 ERA and 3.14 FIP over 29 starts the last two seasons with the Royals, which would make him an exciting addition to almost any rotation on paper. However, there's a lot more question marks about his future than his stats might lead you to believe.

That's because the lefty still looks to be at least a month out from pitching in the majors for the Dodgers as he battles a shoulder injury. After being limited to just 20 starts by injury last year, it's an open question if he'll even make it back to the majors before the end of the regular season this year. Bubic has pitched just 50 1/3 innings so far in 2026, so even if he does make it back before the end of the year his injuries could hurt his value on the open market.

That sort of thing is typically music to Stearns's ears, and no one should be surprised if the Mets wind up signing Bubic to help fill out their 2027 rotation. That might wind up being a good deal if it happens; Bubic is clearly a talented arm and could easily be the next Holmes for the Mets. On the other hand, he could just as easily be the next Montas. That's a dangerous game to play for a team that will need all the help it can get in order to make it back to October next year.

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