Qualifying offer penalty can quickly eliminate NY Mets' Tarik Skubal backup plan

I Stand Alone was a 2002 song by the rock band Godsmack featured in the film The Scorpion King. The song hardly stands alone as their lone hit or even above some of their lesser remembered releases. In MLB free agency, it’s Tarik Skubal who stands alone as the best of the bunch this offseason both from a pitching and hitting perspective. His market will be limited to the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, and maybe a mystery team thrown in.

Alternatives you ask? They aren’t good, Bob. One of the most realistic is Trevor Rogers. He was someone the Mets tried to trade for at the 2024 deadline only to come up short as he went from the Miami Marlins to the Baltimore Orioles instead. Terrible for Baltimore down the stretch, brilliant in an abbreviated 2025, and more average with signs of excellence in 2026, he’s a guy we should definitely believe fits the model of how David Stearns operates.

Rogers turns 29 this November. For him, coming off of a 10-11, 4.01 ERA season means seeking out an opportunity to maybe have an amazing 2027 and/or 2028 and re-enter free agency still young enough to get one of those fat contracts.

If Trevor Rogers receives a qualifying offer and rejects it, the Mets have to think twice about signing him

The QO was pretty much made for players like Rogers. He had a good, not great year. His 101 ERA+ suggests he was a fraction better than average.

However you want to rate him, it’s a little icky to think about giving up two draft picks to sign him. The Mets will, yet again, lose draft pick compensation for signing a QO rejector. The Mets lost $1 million in international bonus slot money plus their second and fifth highest draft picks last offseason when they inked Bo Bichette. Those same penalties should apply again this offseason if they choose to take the leap.

There are players where draft picks don’t matter. Juan Soto cost the Mets two picks and the international bonus slot money. Nobody argued. Eve Bichette felt worth it in some ways especially with the Mets already gaining a selection when Edwin Diaz departed.

Rogers seems a sure bet to decline the qualifying offer. He can guarantee himself more than what it’s worth and with additional years of control. Some health issues in his career will always have a pitcher in free agency looking for a way to capitalize and protect in case of another injury.

Not as expensive as Skubal yet costly to those of us who still haven’t adjusted baseball salaries for inflation, Rogers will find a way to guarantee himself around $50 million over two years plus additional seasons. He’s the kind of guy you sign for what you believe he will do and not what he has already accomplished. It’s not all that different from Zack Wheeler. During his time with the Mets, he was no ace but very good at times. The Philadelphia Phillies believed in the future enough. Will the Mets do so with Rogers?

Stearns hasn’t been hesitant to give out deals like this with inferior players. Frankie Montas getting a $17 million deal for 2025 plus the player option for 2026 never sat well with fans. Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, and even Pete Alonso were all signed for short contracts with a player option. Oh, and Bichette, too. Even Soto has a chance to opt out with the creative pushback where the Mets can increase his salary to avoid him leaving.

Rogers is a part of the Plan-B package if the Mets miss on Skubal. Is it satisfactory enough? Plan-B requires one other addition. Rogers has had flashes of being awesome while the overall results have been more “meh.” That has been the M.O. under Stearns and whether we like it or not, he feels destined to become a hot Mets rumor this winter.

The qualifying offer penalty, perhaps, becomes too rich when the team can just as easily pivot to others who won’t have the same punishment following them around. The big irony is that because Skubal was traded mid-season he wouldn't cost the Mets anything more than cash. With Rogers, there's an added cost.

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