Struggling NY Mets SP Freddy Peralta has a terrifying player comp hard to ignore

According to Baseball-Reference, Freddy Peralta’s career through his age 29 season has compared most closely to one of his peers. Zac Gallen, whose 4.83 ERA last year felt like a real downer, suddenly mimics what Peralta currently has with the Mets through 16 starts with the New York Mets.

It’s a coincidence, right? Well, maybe except for the fact that their careers have been so closely matched. Gallen, in case you haven’t been paying attention, got rocked this past Saturday, too. He gave up 9 earned runs in 4 innings of work against the Milwaukee Brewers. His ERA has reached 6.10 on the season.

Peralta is a year behind Gallen in age and free agency. In his walk year, something Gallen experienced last season, he’s in dangerous territory. Gallen settled for a one-year deal worth the same as the qualifying offer he rejected from the Arizona Diamondbacks with a portion of it deferred into the future. Still getting paid a little over $22 million, no one’s crying tears for his poverty. His performance, on the other hand, is playing out way too close for comfort in comparison to Gallen, one of MLB’s biggest fallen aces.

Freddy Peralta’s career is trending too close for comfort with Zac Gallen

If Peralta wants money, he better wish the Mets trade him. The possibility of them issuing him a qualifying offer won’t do him any favors in free agency just as it didn’t for Gallen who didn’t get a deal until mid-February and it was a return to his old team for what was, because of the deferrals, effectively less money than if he had taken the qualifying offer. One of many questions for the Mets would be to ask if Peralta is even worth the qualifying offer in the first place.

Just because Peralta’s career numbers have matched Gallen as closely as they have with Baseball-Reference’s similarity score doesn’t mean he’s about to blow up next year, too. Similarities shouldn’t be ignored, though. Through age 27 and 28, Peralta’s score matched closest to Jack Flaherty. He is 9-23 with a 4.84 ERA over the last two seasons, only one point higher than where Peralta is currently at.

What shouldn’t be overlooked with Peralta is how many players do get better on the other side of 30. Zack Wheeler is someone Mets fans know well enough as a pitcher who took a little longer to become an absolute stud. Somewhat overlooked, Lance Lynn finished in the top six of the AL Cy Young in three consecutive seasons. He was 32-34 years old in those seasons.

Gallen has gone from Cy Young contender to a one-year flier to someone trending toward becoming a rebound candidate. There are many stages for him to fall. What a hard fall it has been.

Will the Mets know better than to stick with Peralta beyond this year? Contract demands in the Max Fried territory of around eight-years, $218 million will make it much easier. There’s zero chance he actually gets that. A one-year deal to rebuild his stock is the current resolution we should expect. 

Stearns has made plenty of bad choices with starting pitchers, the Peralta trade with the greatest disappointment but far from the worst choice of all. After all, how can you possibly top two years of Frankie Montas for $34 million?

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